RBC links UniCredit’s peer discount to reduced earnings visibility
UniCredit’s third-quarter net profit beat consensus estimates by 17%. KBW’s Hugo Cruz and Ben Maher said the results should get a positive reception and that UniCredit had been “doing all the right things,” attributing the beat to better revenue and lower-than-expected operating expenditure. J.P. Morgan’s Delphine Lee and Kian Abouhossein said operating profit also surpassed forecasts as net interest income, fees, and insurance and trading all exceeded expectations. KBW also noted that UniCredit shares had traded largely in line with peers.
Barclays’s Paola Sabbione and Dibin Meledath Koruthu said UniCredit shares should perform well Monday, pointing to the net profit beat and net interest income ahead of expectations. They also said further upside could come from combining Commerzbank with German subsidiary HVB, with synergies potentially emerging earlier than expected after UniCredit’s takeover of Commerzbank completes. The analysts added that this suggests there might be some acceleration in the integration process.
RBC Capital Markets’ Pablo de la Torre Cuevas offered a more cautious view, saying UniCredit’s discount to peers was justified by reduced earnings visibility during the Commerzbank integration. He said the bank had little scope for material earnings per share upgrades because potential inflation-driven integration costs could run higher than expected and there was little room for near-term, volume-led revenue upgrades. On a pre-provision profit basis excluding trading income, RBC said the beat was around 6.5%, compared with the headline 17% net profit beat. RBC also expected the earnings call to center on UniCredit’s indication that the synergies could materialize earlier.
J.P. Morgan expected analysts to raise UniCredit earnings forecasts by low- to mid-single-digit EPS increments after the operating-profit beat. The bank continued to show strong commercial dynamics, with higher loans and deposits and strong fee generation, while maintaining strong profitability and capital distribution on an organic basis, JPM said.
Hannover Re also reported strong third-quarter numbers, with operating profit 8% above consensus and net profit 9% ahead, according to KBW’s Darius Satkauskas. Both of the German reinsurer’s divisions recorded negative currency results. In its property-and-casualty unit, Satkauskas said the company had clearly continued to add prudence as the run-off benefit from policies no longer renewed amounted to 27 million euros. He said that figure would normally stand around 200 million euros. Hannover Re shares closed at 293 euros Friday, up 10% since the start of the year.
Morgans kept a hold rating on Macquarie after the Australian financial group announced a record first-half profit last week. Analyst Richard Coles said the ASX-listed shares looked fairly priced at 19 times earnings, which he thinks is right at this point in the economic cycle, and expected the second half to be more challenging as the prospect of easing commodity tailwinds weighed on the outlook. Macquarie’s commodities and global markets unit was the first-half standout. Morgans raised its target price 0.7% to 257.65 Australian dollars, while the shares were down 1.2% at A$245.90.
Citi analyst Thomas Strong said ANZ’s fiscal 2026 result was broadly in line, with improved cost control offsetting slightly softer-than-expected annual revenue. Cash earnings of 7.59 billion Australian dollars came in 0.2% ahead of his forecast, while net interest margin of 1.53% fell 2 basis points short of consensus because of market impacts. Costs were A$150 million below the average analyst forecast, and fiscal 2027 cost guidance was in line with expectations. Citi’s last-published rating was buy, with an A$41.00 target price; shares were down 1.5% at A$39.73.
Across the notes, the central distinction was between an earnings beat and the durability of the factors behind it. UniCredit paired stronger revenue with integration uncertainty, Hannover Re paired stronger profit with currency pressure, and assessments of Macquarie and ANZ turned on valuation, costs, revenue and margins.