Novartis raises profit guidance as lower costs drive third-quarter earnings beat

Pluvicto and Kisqali were key top-line underperformers

Novartis reported third-quarter results that beat consensus expectations on core earnings per share and core operating profit, and the Swiss drugmaker raised full-year guidance for core operating profit to between $22.1 billion and $22.8 billion. Bernstein said sales were roughly in line with consensus estimates, while Vontobel’s Stefan Schneider said the top-line beat came predominantly from older products outperforming and newer drugs struggled to meet expectations. The results, the guidance change and the analyst reaction were detailed in research notes published Oct. 27, 2026, in The Wall Street Journal’s Health Care Roundup: Market Talks.

Jefferies analysts said quarterly sales were just ahead of forecasts but dropped through with notably lower operating expenses, leaving core operating profit and core earnings per share ahead of estimates. Jefferies said the company’s new guidance points to full-year core operating profit of $22.1 billion to $22.8 billion, against a consensus forecast of a decline to $21.8 billion and Jefferies’s own estimate of $21.9 billion. Novartis shares were up 0.25% in the 9:25 a.m. ET note.

J.P. Morgan said Novartis shares are likely to outperform after the company reported core earnings ahead of consensus expectations and raised its full-year guidance. The analysts said sales were broadly as expected while core operating profit and core earnings per share both exceeded consensus forecasts, and that new guidance for core operating profit growth in the low single digits at constant currencies implies upgrades of roughly 3% to 2026 consensus estimates. J.P. Morgan said the shares are likely to outperform by 1% to 2%.

Bank of America analysts said investors’ attention will shift to an update on Novartis’s midterm outlook next month, when the company holds its capital markets day in November. Novartis reported third-quarter results with core earnings per share beating consensus expectations mainly thanks to lower-than-expected costs, the analysts wrote, and said the company expects core operating profit to grow in 2026 in the low single-digit range.

At that November event, Novartis will likely roll forward existing guidance of 5%-6% sales growth at constant currency for the 2025-30 period to 2026-31, Bank of America said, and could use the meeting to increase peak-sales guidance for key drugs such as Scemblix, Leqvio and Pluvicto. Shares rose 0.3% in the 9:39 a.m. ET note.

Bernstein analysts said Novartis’s third-quarter revenue was roughly in line with consensus estimates, with some key drugs beating expectations and others falling short. A one-off reimbursement benefit helped the immunology drug Cosentyx beat consensus forecasts, while the gene therapy Zolgensma exceeded expectations on launch momentum for a new formulation, the analysts said.

Bernstein said two oncology drugs stood out among the key top-line underperformers: Pluvicto for prostate cancer and Kisqali for breast cancer. The analysts said Pluvicto sales growth should pick up in 2027, and that Kisqali retains U.S. leadership in the early and late stages of the disease. Shares were up 1.1% at 128.86 Swiss francs in the 10:41 a.m. ET note.

Vontobel’s Stefan Schneider said Novartis had a very solid third-quarter performance but that recently launched products underperformed. Schneider said quarterly sales were slightly above consensus expectations while core operating profit clearly beat forecasts because of productivity improvements, and that profitability was surprisingly good given three large drugs face generic competition. “Despite the good results, we note that the top-line beat is predominantly due to older products outperforming, whereas newer drugs struggled to meet expectations,” Schneider said. Shares rose 0.4% in the 9:13 a.m. ET note.

The notes describe two results inside a single quarter. Jefferies linked the earnings beat to lower operating expenses, and Schneider credited productivity improvements with pushing profit above forecasts, while Schneider said the top-line beat came predominantly from older products and newer drugs struggled to meet expectations. Jefferies said Novartis’s guidance increase should be well received in the current market backdrop.

The share moves cited in the notes are snapshots taken at different times: 0.4% in the 9:13 a.m. ET item, 0.25% at 9:25 a.m. ET, 0.3% at 9:39 a.m. ET and 1.1% at 10:41 a.m. ET, with the stock at 128.86 Swiss francs.

The Market Talks series is published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET, and the collection was updated Oct. 27, 2026, at 12:26 pm ET. Each item reflected a separate firm’s research note, with forecasts and stock calls attributed to Bernstein, Bank of America, Jefferies, Vontobel and J.P. Morgan; what Novartis presents in November remains the company’s own decision, not an announced one.