Republicans' 53-47 Senate majority faces possible shift to 44 seats

Journal asks how GOP advances Hegseth’s budget with fewer seats, flags likely oversight

The Wall Street Journal said the Senate arithmetic facing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth could complicate his budget and priorities. Its Politics newsletter reported that Republicans went from a 53-47 Senate majority to the possibility that they would hold only 44 seats next year after losing dozens of seats. The newsletter asked how the party could get Hegseth’s budget and priorities through with that deficit, and separately pointed to likely congressional oversight and investigations.

The account left two decisions open. Rep. Thomas Massie (R., Ky.) introduced articles of impeachment against Hegseth on Monday, and a House vote could come later this week. The newsletter said Republicans were not showing they would vote to impeach the defense secretary, though they were saying publicly that Trump had a decision to make. It said the White House might have that decision to make first.

Hegseth had narrowly survived a 51-50 Senate confirmation in January 2025, but his support now appears substantially less, the newsletter said. Sen. Thom Tillis (R., N.C.) called his vote to confirm Hegseth the “biggest regret of my career,” and other Republicans signaled to the White House that week that Hegseth needed to go. Hegseth is scheduled to hold a press conference at 8 a.m. ET Tuesday.

The Journal wrote: “Hegseth is a fighter, and President Trump likes fighters, and so Hegseth is fighting.” The newsletter said Hegseth was fighting to keep his position, while twisting arms on Capitol Hill, as Republicans did to secure his confirmation last year, would be harder with a GOP that had lost dozens of seats.

Hegseth’s standing had also shifted after Trump appointed Stephen Miller as chief of staff last week. The newsletter described Hegseth as “one of the most ebullient cabinet members” at the time, and for a moment that made it look like Hegseth’s job was safe. That impression faded over the weekend as Republicans sought distance from him, the Journal said.

Tuesday’s political calendar includes Hegseth’s 8 a.m. ET press conference and Senate Republican leadership elections to select a minority leader, whip, conference chair and other junior positions following the midterm elections. Louisiana Rep. Steve Scalise is running against Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan to lead House Republicans in the new Democratic-run Congress, and Trump is scheduled to hold several policy meetings.

The Wall Street Journal said “Corporate America is lawyering up” ahead of an expected wave of Democratic investigations. After Democrats dominated Tuesday’s election, the newsletter said, they dispatched letters telling companies they were targets and set Jan. 4, the first full day of the new Congress, as the deadline to produce records. The newsletter said some of America’s largest businesses, from Amazon to Apple, Live Nation to Walmart, were “among the first to feel the heat.”

Hakeem Jeffries, set to be the next House speaker, said he was unaware of any conversations between Trump and Democrats in recent days. Speaking in a brief interview outside a Verizon store in Washington, D.C., Jeffries said the House Democratic caucus would discuss immigration policy this week after Trump expressed openness to a deal. “We clearly need a dramatic change,” Jeffries said.

California voters rejected Proposition 40, an unprecedented tax on billionaires. The Wall Street Journal described the decision as ending “a heated and expensive fight” over what could have been the nation’s first modern tax on wealth. The newsletter called the outcome “a significant blow” to supporters who had hoped to create a template for taxing wealth that could extend far beyond California.

The newsletter was written by Damian Paletta, The Wall Street Journal’s Washington coverage chief, who said he had covered Washington for 22 years as a reporter and editor, including the White House, Congress, national security, the federal budget, economics and multiple market meltdowns. The edition was curated and edited in collaboration with Alistair Dawber and Mali Michelle Fleming.

For Hegseth, the immediate questions remained unsettled. The Wall Street Journal said the reduced Senate bloc could make his budget and priorities harder to advance and pointed to likely oversight and investigations. Separately, a House vote could come later this week, and the White House might have a decision to make first about whether to retain the defense secretary.