As fragile U.S. negotiations with Iran got underway in Switzerland on June 20, President Trump posted a social-media threat to attack Iran if it did not stop funding its allied Lebanese militia Hezbollah. The outburst derailed the first face-to-face session between the two sides.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian chief negotiator, was unaware of the president’s post because he had left his phone outside the negotiating room, according to people familiar with the matter. When an aide briefed him, he turned to chide Vice President JD Vance. Ghalibaf calmly told Vance the threats were a breach of the opening paragraph of the memorandum of understanding Trump had signed days earlier committing both sides not to attack or threaten each other. Then his team ended the talks, the people said.
Inside the room, Vance told the Iranians that Trump meant if Tehran violated the deal, the U.S. would respond, according to a U.S. official familiar with the negotiations. Vance pushed for a break in the talks to allow the Iranians time to consider proposals, not because of the president’s post, the official said. Later, Vance defended Trump, saying the president was responding to Iranian “trash talk” in order “to correct the record.”
The incident was not the first time Trump’s social-media commentary had disrupted the negotiations, which have been ongoing for months. Mediators repeatedly warned the U.S. during the talks that the posts were threatening efforts to close a deal, people familiar with the matter said. Mediators tried to get Iran to ignore what Trump said in public and focus on what his negotiators said in private.
Trump has acknowledged the theatrics. After issuing a profanity-laced warning to Iran in April to open the Strait of Hormuz, the president told an aide he wanted to look as unstable as possible to prod Iran to the table, people familiar with the matter said. He later threatened to destroy Iran’s export terminal at Kharg Island, its power plants and its civilization.
Iranian diplomats told mediators they consulted a team of psychologists to help them understand the president’s mindset, some mediators said. Iranian diplomats work with the specialists to try to predict Trump’s public response to Iran’s proposals, they said. A person familiar with Iran’s diplomacy in Switzerland said its negotiating team there does not include psychologists and the country prefers not to engage in psychological speculation on Trump’s motives or decisions.
Political analysts and mediators say the president’s loud protestations have yet to yield extra concessions from Iran. “Trump is applying the lessons of ‘The Art of the Deal,’ making extreme threats to test the other side’s resolve,” said Mohamed Amersi, an Iran expert and member of the Global Advisory Council of the Wilson Center. “But the Iranians…are well aware of his tactics. It won’t change the dynamics.”
After restarting the weekend talks through indirect channels, Tehran successfully blocked U.S. attempts to insert a mention of the International Atomic Energy Agency — which monitors Iran’s nuclear program — into the final communiqué and wrapped up agreement on the U.S. commitment to allow Iranian oil sales in dollars, people familiar with the matter said. Another person familiar with the U.S. position said Tehran did not block the American attempt to include the IAEA and that the agency’s work was always meant to be dealt with separately.
Iranian officials and mediators have said Trump’s social-media posts have made it harder for more pragmatic officials in Tehran to convince hard-liners the U.S. could be trusted to deliver on its commitments. In early April, Trump threatened to bomb Iran’s power stations and, later, “A whole civilization will die tonight,” he wrote on April 7. At the time, Iran chose to ignore the threat — seeing it as a negotiating tactic — and got what it wanted, a 15-day truce instead of the 45-day ceasefire the U.S. sought, according to Iranian officials and mediators. A U.S. person familiar with the matter said Trump was serious about his message and said the post led to communications with Iran.
Ten days later, another Trump post helped drive a wedge between Iranian moderates and hard-liners. Minutes after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open following a truce in Lebanon, Trump responded on social media that the U.S. blockade would remain in force. Iran’s security forces, which opposed any concession to the U.S., seized on the post, later saying the strait remained shut.