Analysts weigh tungsten supply, Henkel results and miner dividend calls

NexGen’s Rook I start could draw strategic buyers, Shaw says

A new U.S. export ban on tungsten scrap and stronger-than-expected results at Henkel were among the developments analysts weighed in Aug. 6 notes on basic-materials companies, alongside contrasting dividend expectations for two Australian miners.

Euroz Hartleys said the U.S. ban, which begins later this month and should make more recycled tungsten available within the country, could tighten supply of the critical mineral even further for buyers outside the United States. The Western tungsten market has been very tight since China imposed export controls in early 2025, and the broker said the ban “adds further focus to the security of tungsten supply outside of China.” Euroz called the ban a positive for ASX-listed tungsten stocks, naming EQ Resources, Apollo Minerals and Tungsten Mining.

Henkel raised its full-year sales-growth guidance after first-half revenue came in ahead of analysts’ estimates, driven by its adhesives business. Jefferies analyst David Hayes called the expectations-topping first half a strong update that supports Henkel versus its peers. Henkel shares gained 3.6% to 79.30 euros.

Analysts at J.P. Morgan noted that Henkel booked 4.7% organic sales growth in the April-June period, picking up pace from the first quarter and beating estimates. “While the shares have performed strongly into results we would expect the print to be supportive of the shares,” JPM said.

BofA analysts wrote that Glencore’s planned secondary listing in Australia could set the scene for large merger-and-acquisition deals, in part because the listing might make the country’s investors more familiar with the commodity giant. Large-cap miners BHP and Rio Tinto are currently listed on the Australian Securities Exchange. Glencore shares traded flat at 573.7 pence.

Morgan Stanley forecast that Sandfire Resources will pay a final dividend of 13.5 U.S. cents a share, about 8% above consensus, a level the bank said reflects the miner’s US$353 million net cash position. “We see potential for share buy-backs” too, Morgan Stanley said, adding that management has signaled a preference for returning excess cash, though geopolitical uncertainty might encourage it to keep a notable near-term cash buffer. The bank said it will also watch fiscal 2027 unit-cost and capital-expenditure guidance. Sandfire shares were up 2.4% at 21.14 Australian dollars.

By contrast, Morgan Stanley said lithium miner PLS is unlikely to pay a final dividend, despite consensus pointing to a year-end payout of 3 Australian cents a share. The bank expects PLS to retain cash for its P2000 project and assumes roughly A$1.8 billion in growth capital expenditure will be needed for it. Morgan Stanley forecasts second-half underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization of A$887 million, 1% below consensus, and diluted earnings per share of A$0.16, 6% above consensus. PLS shares were up 3.0% at A$4.46.

The start of construction of NexGen Energy’s Rook I uranium project in Canada could put the company in takeover crosshairs, Shaw & Partners said, with analyst Andrew Hines saying NexGen is entering its next phase as a company. Construction brings a different form of risk and the market’s attention will shift to execution, Shaw said. “It is also likely to see NexGen come under increasing scrutiny from strategic buyers,” Shaw said. “Rook I is a world class asset that would fit into any major mining company’s portfolio.” Rook I has the potential to generate annual Ebitda of more than C$3 billion, which Shaw said would make it one of the most profitable mines in the world in any commodity. Shaw retains a “buy” call on NexGen.