Pact comes amid uncertainty over American security umbrella
The agreement brings together Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation, with Saudi Arabia, a wealthy oil producer, and Turkey, a NATO member with a growing defense industrial base. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry described the pact as intended to “strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression.”
The pact builds on an existing defense arrangement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. A Turkish official said the agreement is purely defensive and not aimed at any specific actor, adding that other countries are welcome to join. The three governments did not specify what practical steps they would take if any of them were to be attacked.
The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has created new risks for the region while raising uncertainty about the American security umbrella. President Trump, having launched the war against the advice of his Arab Gulf allies, is now looking for an exit that many countries in the region fear could leave them exposed to an emboldened Iran, according to the Journal.
Iran built its defense during the conflict largely on retaliatory strikes across the Persian Gulf, hitting economic and cultural targets as well as U.S. bases and embassies. Iran also launched missiles at Turkey, a NATO member that hosts an important base for U.S. forces. NATO air defenses shot down the ballistic missiles.
Israel’s demonstration of military and intelligence capabilities and its willingness to use them across the region since the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023, has also raised new security considerations for other Middle East powers. Israel launched a missile attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar last year that alarmed Gulf states that received little warning and assumed their relationship with the U.S. would prevent such strikes, according to the Journal.
Saudi Arabia also faces a growing threat from the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen, which has begun attacking opposing military forces backed by the kingdom and shooting at Saudi tankers transiting the Red Sea. The kingdom said a Houthi attack Thursday injured 11 people in a Saudi border town.
“It’s a response to both of these destabilizing factors, because all three countries view the overall destabilization of the region with a similar lens, tracing it both to Israel and to Iran,” said Sinan Ülgen, a former Turkish diplomat and the director of EDAM, a think tank in Istanbul.
Umer Karim, an associate fellow with the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, a think tank in Riyadh, described the pact as sending a message to Iran. “This gives a message to Iran that it cannot just simply dictate its way under the new realities which we see are now emerging, which have considerably strengthened Iran’s hand in the Gulf region,” Karim said.
Pakistan dispatched a fleet of warplanes to Saudi Arabia in April after several weeks of war. Pakistan, which did not come under attack in the conflict but briefly exchanged fire with Iran in 2024, emerged as a leading mediator between Washington and Tehran early in the conflict, according to the Journal.
The new defense agreement could be seen as an effort to build a bulwark against future Iranian attacks, analysts said. But the pact also highlights the dilemmas facing regional powers that may want to diversify their security arrangements while remaining broadly dependent on the U.S. for key military supplies and support.
“I think that all the three countries are structurally in a bind with the U.S. with regards to their security or politics. Although they do try to pragmatically wade around it for their national interest,” Karim said.