OPEC lowers 2026 growth forecast, projects 2.2 million bpd rise in 2027
Crude oil prices fell in early Thursday trading after the International Energy Agency projected a sharper decline in global oil demand for 2026 than its July projection in its August market report released Wednesday.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 45 cents to $88.53 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. benchmark, dropped 54 cents to $82.73.
The IEA now forecasts global oil demand will decline by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026, a downward revision of about 510,000 barrels per day from its July projection. The agency tied the wide July trading range of about $40 per barrel to peace talks between the United States and Iran falling apart.
“Expectations of diplomatic progress had triggered steep price declines in June and early July, but a return to hostilities led prices to spike as high as $105/bbl on 23 July,” the IEA report said.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in its own August report published the same day, projected that oil demand will grow by about 600,000 barrels per day in 2026, a downward revision from its July estimate of roughly 780,000 barrels per day. OPEC separately forecast demand growth of about 2.2 million barrels per day for 2027.
U.S. crude stockpiles swelled by 17.4 million barrels last week, according to Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday.
The IEA noted that crude prices had reached a two-month high in July following peace talks between the United States and Iran falling apart. The agency’s August report described July price action as having “traded in an unusually wide range” of about $40 per barrel.