AI gains push California income tax revenue past May forecast

California-based companies have raised approximately $366 billion of venture capital since the beginning of 2026, according to PitchBook — more than three times the amount of venture funding that has gone into the other 49 states combined, and nearly double California’s previous record, set in 2025. New York state ranks a distant second in venture-capital investment, with $27 billion in deals announced so far this year.

The capital has poured into California despite the prospect of a proposed billionaire tax that detractors, including Gov. Gavin Newsom, have warned could scare off investors. Thus far, investments in the largest AI companies are sustaining the flow while the state’s billionaire class waits to see whether voters back the new levy in November.

In May 2025, California’s finance department projected $126 billion in personal-income tax revenues for the fiscal year that ended June 30. Actual income taxes instead generated approximately $147 billion, as AI enthusiasm fueled a soaring stock market and boosted compensation for tech workers. Future initial public offerings of young AI companies now raising venture funding will produce additional tax revenue from capital gains.

The windfall has not resolved California’s long-term budget challenges but has given state leaders unanticipated near-term flexibility. The state was able to deposit more money in reserves and increase education spending, which is required to receive a certain share of revenues. The extra tax revenue also gave Sacramento additional room to fund discretionary items ranging from new courthouses to litter abatement.

Just two AI companies have accounted for more than half of California’s venture-capital haul in 2026. In March, OpenAI raised $122 billion in the largest funding round in Silicon Valley history. Rival AI developer Anthropic has drawn $95 billion across two funding rounds.

Smaller hauls, however, are spread widely: more than 4,000 California-based startups have raised capital this year, according to PitchBook. Among the more recent deals, Torrance-based defense-manufacturing startup Hadrian Automation announced a $1.37 billion funding round on Aug. 6, and live-commerce platform Whatnot raised $545 million on Aug. 7.

Sean Randolph, senior director of the Bay Area Council Economic Institute, a pro-business think tank, attributed the continued flow of capital to Silicon Valley’s gravitational pull.

“It’s just where the action is,” Randolph said.

Enrico Moretti, a University of California at Berkeley economist who studies the geography of jobs, said the concentration of AI investment in Silicon Valley is unusually extreme even by the standards of previous industrial clusterings.

“It’s an amount of agglomeration that surpasses even previous waves,” Moretti said. The pattern, he added, reflects the extraordinary returns to creativity and innovation that research suggests can be amplified when workers with specialized skills and the firms that need them are co-located.

The proposed billionaire tax, put forward by a healthcare union, is principally intended to raise $100 million to replace cuts in federal health spending signed into law by President Trump. Newsom said earlier this year that the plan could damage startup activity and result in “people questioning long-term commitments” in the state. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra has also come out against it. The proposed measure would significantly raise the fiscal burden on ultrawealthy Californians by targeting their net assets rather than only their annual incomes, which wealth advisers say would pose a particular challenge to startup founders whose fortunes are tied up in illiquid company stock.

Still, Randolph said, for entrepreneurs focused on the immediate task of launching new companies, the advantages of being in California are considerable.

“You want to be close to where the venture capital is,” he said. “You want to be close to where the markets for your products are going to be, and you want to be close to where—if you want to be acquired—your acquirers might be, and the deep talent base.”

The AI-driven capital surge has supercharged housing prices in San Francisco and created a new class of millionaires overnight, and the reverberations have extended beyond the tech-centric Bay Area into Sacramento’s fiscal calculations.