WICHE projects 13% decline in U.S. college enrollments by 2041

Selective colleges draw more applicants as regional schools lose ground

The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education’s latest forecast shows U.S. college enrollments projected to decline 13% by 2041, a contraction driven by a shrinking pipeline of 18-year-olds tied to lower U.S. birthrates. The largest single-year cohort of 18-year-olds ever recorded arrived on campuses in autumn 2025, and declines are now underway in parts of the Midwest and Northeast, according to the WICHE forecast.

The underlying mechanism is straightforward. U.S. births have fallen, and the reduced cohort of 18-year-olds is now reaching college age. WICHE projects that this demographic shift will reduce total college enrollments by 13% between the 2025 peak and 2041, though precise admission outcomes will depend on factors beyond raw demographics.

A shrinking applicant pool might be expected to make admission easier, but reporting from The Wall Street Journal describes a separate phenomenon layering on top of the demographic shift: what higher education analysts call a flight-to-quality, in which the most sought-after schools attract an ever-growing number of applicants while less-attractive schools draw fewer. The result is that selectivity is intensifying at the top even as the overall applicant pool contracts.

Part of the dynamic reflects rising skepticism about the value of a college degree, according to the same reporting. Families increasingly reason that if they will spend tens of thousands of dollars on tuition, the diploma must lead to a good job; otherwise the investment does not justify itself.

This dynamic has been visible in the Ivy League, where admission rates have fallen over more than a decade. Coveted schools just outside the Ivy tier have grown more competitive as well.

Many large public flagships are drawing more applicants. The University of Michigan has long held prestige, and other state universities have surged in status, attracting students who want a traditional campus experience at a lower cost than many private institutions. These flagship state universities have grown more competitive alongside elite private schools.

Regional and less selective schools have moved in the opposite direction, drawing fewer applicants as the most selective institutions absorb a growing share of the pool. The divergence is widening the gap between institution tiers.

Students are responding by casting wider nets. According to a 2024-25 report from the Common App, students submitted an average of nearly seven applications each — a 46% increase since the 2015-16 academic year.

The concentration of applications among a smaller set of selective institutions, layered onto a shrinking 18-year-old cohort, has already reduced applicant pools at less-selective schools in parts of the Midwest and Northeast, according to the WICHE forecast and the Wall Street Journal reporting.