Russia escalates 'gray-zone' attacks across Europe, officials say

CIA director makes surprise trip to Moscow to signal support for NATO

The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday that Russia has escalated a campaign of drone incursions, sabotage, cyberattacks and other hostile actions across Europe, as President Vladimir Putin seeks to curb European aid to Ukraine and sow divisions among Kyiv’s allies.

European authorities have linked Moscow to a string of recent incidents on the continent. Three explosive drones were discovered in or near a German airport in recent weeks, one of them positioned beneath a Ukrainian cargo plane. A Russian drone was recently shot down over Romania. Dutch intelligence agencies have warned that “Russian state actors are systematically conducting digital espionage” by hacking web-linked cameras to monitor aid shipments to Ukraine.

In a sign of Washington’s concern, Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe made a surprise trip to Moscow on Tuesday, in part to convey to Putin’s government that the United States stands by its NATO allies, according to people familiar with the visit.

The tempo of Russia-linked incidents in Europe has accelerated sharply. Ukraine’s Sahaidachnyi Security Center, which tracks Russian gray-zone activities on the continent, puts the pace at about 15 incidents per month since April, up from a maximum of around 10 per month in earlier periods stretching back to 2024. Sahaidachnyi analysts cautioned that trends are difficult to discern because many suspected incidents are not included in their data.

“Russia is looking for ways to reduce support among NATO countries for Ukraine and, one of the secondary effects they are also pursuing is spreading panic,” Remigijus Bridikis, director of Lithuania’s civilian intelligence agency, told the Journal.

European authorities have accused Russia of recruiting local agents through Telegram and other social-media platforms to carry out sabotage, espionage and vandalism intended to stoke divisions. Estonia is investigating whether Russia-linked sabotage was behind an arson attack this month on Milrem Robotics, a local defense company. Recent explosions and fires at munitions facilities in Italy, Bulgaria and Finland have drawn suspicion of Russian involvement, though authorities have not said they see evidence linking Moscow to those incidents.

Western officials said Russia could escalate its confrontation further and has already captured Ukrainian drones that could be used for potential false-flag attacks on NATO countries. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has dismissed the reports, saying they are being used to justify European militarization against Russia.

The pace of low-level aggression has accelerated as Russia’s war with Ukraine has entered a deadlier phase of long-range strikes. Ukraine has carried out increasingly successful attacks deep inside Russia, damaging Moscow’s oil and gas sector and other industries that feed its war effort. The Journal reported that the Kremlin is now applying similar pressure to Ukraine, while the money and supplies that sustain Kyiv’s front lines extend deep into NATO territory.

New U.S. intelligence reports assess that Russia could try to test NATO’s resolve with a limited assault on a member country in the next few years, through steps potentially ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale land incursion, the Journal reported. NATO’s collective security rests on the principle that an attack on one member is an attack on all.

Short of that, the Kremlin still gains from destabilizing domestic politics ahead of coming elections in NATO countries including Germany, France, Finland, Estonia and Poland, analysts said. Poland is particularly vulnerable to disruption because tensions with Ukrainian refugees have been mounting, the Journal reported.

“The primary interest is to change the status quo in Europe,” Estonian lawmaker Marko Mihkelson told the Journal. “It’s an extension of the election interference you’ve seen them try to carry out” in other countries, he said. Officials in the U.S., U.K., Hungary and Romania have accused Moscow of trying to skew national voting in recent years.

There is little evidence that the strategy is working. The alliance’s easternmost members show some of the strongest support for maintaining military aid to Ukraine and boosting military spending at home. Romania, which had a Russia-sympathetic electorate in the years after the war began, has seen sentiment harden against Moscow after a series of drone incursions. Three drones were shot down over Romania last month and a drone incursion in May started a fire on the roof of a residential building. Romania expelled a Russian diplomat last month; the Kremlin responded Thursday by expelling a Romanian diplomat in Moscow.

MSI previously reported Gen. Carsten Breuer’s assessment that Russia is systematically using drones to probe European air defenses and the explosive-laden drone found near a Ukrainian cargo plane at a German airport, placing Saturday’s account within a documented pattern of gray-zone operations across NATO territory.