Defense argued one shot, one victim; judge disagreed

A Utah judge ruled Tuesday there is sufficient evidence to send Tyler Robinson to trial on an aggravated murder charge in the fatal shooting of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, preserving the death penalty as a potential sentence if Robinson is convicted. District Judge Tony Graf sided with prosecutors who argued Robinson endangered others besides Kirk when he fired a single shot into a crowd of about 3,000 people at Utah Valley University. Robinson, 23, pleaded not guilty.

The ruling rejects the defense’s argument that the charge should be reduced to murder, a move that would have taken the death penalty off the table. The defense had argued Robinson fired only one shot and never threatened anyone besides Kirk. Graf’s decision keeps the capital case alive roughly a year after Kirk was killed and moves the case toward trial.

Robinson is accused of fatally shooting Kirk in September 2025 while the 31-year-old spoke at an outdoor event at Utah Valley University as part of a campus tour for Turning Point USA, the conservative youth organization Kirk co-founded. Tuesday’s hearing was an evidentiary review under Utah law, an early stage in which prosecutors must show they have enough evidence to establish probable cause.

Graf said his decision was not a ruling on Robinson’s guilt. “These circumstances support a reasonable inference that defendant was aware that other individuals were positioned near Mr. Kirk when he fired,” the judge said.

The lethal shot came from roughly 400 feet away, and if Robinson had been off by just one degree, the bullet would have missed by seven feet, Deputy Utah County Attorney Ryan McBride told the court. “You can’t shoot a rifle into a crowd of 3,000 people without knowing that you create a great risk of death to all those around your target,” McBride said.

Defense attorney Staci Visser argued the prosecution had not met its burden of proving Robinson knowingly created a great risk to others. “There is one shot, there is one bullet, there is one victim,” Visser said in court. “There was no evidence that would suggest anyone else was threatened.”

The defense had argued in court filings that Robinson “did not miss his intended target and did not chamber another round,” and pointed to the fact that he did not reload his grandfather’s bolt-action rifle. Under Utah law, aggravated murder requires prosecutors to show the defendant knowingly created a great risk of death to others besides the victim.

A conviction on the lesser charge of murder would have carried a minimum sentence of 15 years and a maximum of life in prison. Aggravated murder, the charge Robinson now faces at trial, is a capital felony that makes the death penalty an option.

Kirk’s family said in a statement Tuesday that they hoped for a timely legal process. “Today’s decision, which comes nearly a year since Charlie was taken from us, marks an important step in our family’s pursuit of justice for him,” the family said. Robinson pleaded not guilty at Tuesday’s hearing.