States push to ban prediction markets as election betting expands

Maryland official calls trend ‘troubling’ for election administrators

HARRISBURG, Pa. — Election-season trading on prediction markets is skyrocketing into this fall’s biggest political races, drawing concerns from state election administrators who say the proliferation of high-stakes odds could affect American democracy in unpredictable ways.

The platforms — most prominently Polymarket and Kalshi — allow participants to buy and sell contracts tied to the probable outcome of an event. The contracts are typically priced between 1 and 99 cents, and customers can trade on everything from mayoral and gubernatorial contests to U.S. Senate races.

Already this year, prediction market odds have gotten tangled up with real-life elections, and the phenomenon is quickly becoming a focus for election administrators, who for years have battled misinformation and conspiracy theories about the voting process.

“This is a troubling trend that election administrators across the nation must deal with,” said Jared DeMarinis, the administrator for the Maryland State Board of Elections.

DeMarinis and other state officials describe a broad set of concerns, but many center on a fear that pervasive financial incentives will further damage confidence in elections and democracy if Americans think participants are using the markets to influence the outcome.

Multiple states are fighting to outlaw the platforms as unlicensed casinos.

The regulatory effort comes as President Donald Trump has pressed sweeping changes to voter identification and voting-by-mail procedures. The Associated Press reports that Trump has falsely claimed there is rampant fraud in mail voting and widespread voting by noncitizens.