Other costs climb while Trump cites falling lettuce prices
Demand shock from outbreak drove the lettuce price drop, economists say
The Food and Drug Administration has recorded more than 19,500 confirmed cases of cyclosporiasis across 20 states since May — 16 times the caseload reported in the same period in 2025 — with just over 1,000 hospitalizations and two deaths. The agency traced the spread to iceberg lettuce that has since been recalled and said it “remains confident that all recalled iceberg lettuce related to this specific Cyclospora outbreak is off the market.”
Before the outbreak, lettuce prices had been rising because of supply constraints from adverse weather and disease affecting harvests, according to David Ortega, a food economics and policy professor at Michigan State University. The demand shift from the outbreak reversed that trajectory. “That’s a very consistent case here,” Ortega said. “People cut back on not just all lettuce, or a lot of lettuce, but even other produce just out of fear.” Compared with August 2025, lettuce prices were down 2.2% in August 2026.
Restaurant chains absorbed the consumer pullback. Chipotle said sales fell 2% in the second half of July, though the chain “maintains a very robust food safety program.” Sweetgreen, which was not linked to the outbreak, cut its full-year outlook in August, citing a fall in foot traffic. Taco Bell, which was directly linked to the outbreak, said it experienced a “meaningful” short-term impact on sales that had been “steadily improving.”
The lettuce decline ran against the broader inflation picture in the same data release. Diesel prices breached $6 a gallon for the first time, gasoline averaged $1.10 a gallon more than a year earlier, and fuel oil used for home heating rose 52% year-over-year in August. An ongoing war in Iran has boosted energy costs in recent months.
Trump’s trade war with Canada is expected to add pressure on consumer prices, with tariffs affecting goods from liquor to toilet paper. Canada is a major agricultural trading partner: imports from Canada made up 18.5% of US agricultural imports in 2025, according to the US Department of Agriculture, and the US bought 60.3% of Canada’s total agricultural exports.
At the Republican midterm convention earlier this week, Trump said “food prices and almost every other item are rapidly going down.” Trump has also said oil prices will go “tumbling downward” after the election, describing Iran as “desperate to try and affect the election.” At the convention, Trump said he would give Americans a $5,000 “dividend” if Republicans keep control of Congress after the midterms — a move critics called a blatant bribe — and asked voters to “let us finish the job we began.”