Package targets net overseas migration cut to 225,000 over two years
Burke will deliver the changes at a National Press Club address titled “The work of managing the migration program: Who arrives, who stays, who leaves.” The speech had been due more than a month ago but was cancelled at the 11th hour amid debate inside cabinet about the direction and scale of the changes.
The long-awaited changes, expected to be revealed on Thursday, are also expected to include efforts to stop visa overstays and limit lengthy appeals processes for applicants.
The package would shift some visa categories away from demand-driven settings, giving the government more control over the numbers of people entering and leaving the country. Labor plans to use legislation to gain more control over arrival numbers but could rely on regulation and directives to departmental officials if it cannot find agreement in parliament.
“We do need to get net overseas migration down,” Burke said. “We need to make sure that we deal with the numbers overall, and do so in a sensible, a targeted way that provides the easiest pathway through the Australian economy.”
Last year Australia issued more than 337,000 international student visas, of which about 45,000 went to dependents or family members of the primary applicant. Under the mooted changes, the vast majority of students would be required to come alone. The shift is part of a broader push to bring net overseas migration toward 225,000 over two years, ending years of higher-than-expected arrivals from international students and working holidaymakers.
The government’s target sits alongside 185,000 permanent arrivals Australia already permits annually. Net overseas migration, which measures people entering or leaving the country for at least 12 months over 16 months — including departing and returning Australian citizens — has fallen in seven consecutive quarters since September 2023 and is forecast to drop below pre-Covid levels by 2027-28.
Temporary visa holder rates remain elevated. For the 2024-25 financial year there were 568,370 overseas arrivals, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data. The package is also expected to include measures that stop people whose visas have expired from transferring between categories, forcing some overseas citizens to leave the country more quickly, alongside a push to drive down the number of unlawful non-citizens currently in Australia.
Department of Home Affairs data shows that, as of July, there were 110,898 individuals not granted a protection visa who were yet to be deported. The total includes people on bridging visas and others seeking judicial or administrative review.
Labor’s effort to regain the initiative on immigration comes as One Nation surges in polls and as community sentiment on the number of overseas arrivals remains a key issue motivating voters. The minor party said on Monday it would cut the number of temporary migrants in Australia by more than 750,000 over three years, targeting international students and family members of skilled migrants.
Business groups, universities, the aged-care sector and both Labor and the Coalition criticized the Hanson proposals, warning they would hurt essential services and the economy. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese tried to secure Coalition support for legislative changes in talks with opposition leader Angus Taylor last week, but no agreement was reached. Albanese leaves Australia on Friday to attend the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
Independent senator David Pocock said on Wednesday the country deserved a mature conversation about immigration, not one starting with numbers. “The big thing I would love to see is a plan. There’s this constant talk about numbers, about classes of visas. Rather than actually having the conversation as a country, what is our 10-year plan for migration,” he told ABC radio. “What are the skills that we need? What are the trade-offs when it comes to housing, impact on the environment?”
Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry head Andrew McKellar called for an end to “the race for the lowest Nom,” warning business needed skilled workers from overseas. “We do not have a migration problem in Australia; we have a housing crisis and skill shortages. Those are the problems we need to fix. Shortsighted approaches that damage the economy won’t solve them. Those are red lines for business,” he said.