Seven rightwing or far-right presidential candidates have won Latin American elections in 18 months
Donald Trump “has enjoyed very few foreign policy victories since returning to power,” Steve Bloomfield writes in the Guardian. “From failed wars to failed peace processes, his second term in office has been marked by one costly blunder on the world stage after another. In Latin America, though, the US president has a different story to tell.”
Bloomfield, the former international editor of the Observer, documents a national security strategy that commits the US to “restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere” and to interfere in the political life of countries it considers part of its sphere of influence, rewarding governments and movements that are “broadly aligned with our principles and strategy.”
The strategy has already been carried out in concrete steps. The US bailed out Argentina to the tune of $40bn and threatened to withdraw the funding if President Javier Milei’s party lost midterm elections, Bloomfield reported. In Colombia, Trump personally sanctioned leftwing President Gustavo Petro and accused him of being an “illegal drug leader.” And in the most dramatic move, a US military operation in Venezuela brought President Nicolás Maduro to the United States; the day after, the State Department posted a photograph of Trump above the slogan “This is OUR hemisphere.”
Over the past 18 months, seven rightwing or far-right candidates have won presidential elections across Latin America, according to Bloomfield. In most of them, Trump openly backed the winning candidate. “We’re doing very well in South America,” Trump said last month. “Lots of people that I got elected.”
This weekend, the administration will be hoping to add what Bloomfield called “the greatest prize of all”: Brazil, South America’s biggest country and its largest economy. The first-round presidential election on Sunday pits leftwing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted of plotting to overturn his 2022 election loss. If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff is scheduled for 25 October. “If he wins, Trump wins,” Bloomfield wrote, “and the hemisphere really will be his.”
Since Trump returned to power in January 2025, administration officials and Maga-world allies have been doing what they can to damage Lula and boost the Bolsonaros, Bloomfield reported. Initially, the aim was to keep Jair Bolsonaro out of jail. Like Trump, Jair Bolsonaro refused to accept the result of the 2022 general election. Like Trump, his supporters stormed government buildings. Bloomfield identified two crucial differences in Brazil: the seriousness of Bolsonaro’s attempt to hold on to power, and the determination of Brazilians that he should be held to account.
Investigators uncovered a sprawling conspiracy led by Bolsonaro and seven of his closest allies to keep him in power, Bloomfield reported. It included a plot to kill Lula, his running mate and a supreme court judge. A draft decree had been written that would overturn the result; the military would step in and ensure Bolsonaro returned to power. The plot failed, and Bolsonaro, his defense minister and the navy chief were arrested and put on trial.
Trump intervened twice, according to Bloomfield. In July 2025, he threatened a 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports and called the case against Bolsonaro a “witch hunt.” The attempt to influence Brazil’s judiciary backfired: Lula refused to bow to US pressure, the trial went ahead, and Bolsonaro was found guilty and sentenced to 27 years in prison. Lula received a polling bump after standing up to Trump.
In July 2026, as the campaign entered its final phase, Trump imposed a new 25% tariff on some Brazilian goods. The State Department then tried to dispatch two officials to Brazil to investigate “electoral integrity”; Brazil denied them visas, accusing the officials of coming to “meddle in Brazil’s elections.”
In the final weeks of the campaign, Lula has leaned into those accusations. A recent advertisement accused Flávio Bolsonaro of being “Trump’s candidate” and said the US president wants “to colonise Brazil, take our riches, steal our future and leave us in the dust.” What remains unclear is whether the White House’s strategy in Brazil is working. “Some in Brazil joke that Lula’s most effective surrogate is Trump,” Brian Winter, editor in chief of Americas Quarterly, told Bloomfield.
Despite Trump’s boasts, US interference has arguably had limited direct effect on the regional shift to the right, Bloomfield reported. In Peru and Chile, Trump-aligned candidates avoided seeking his endorsement for fear it would cause more trouble than it was worth. In Bolivia, the leftwing MAS government was responsible for its own downfall, winning just 3.16% in last year’s election after 20 years of increasingly chaotic rule.
The bigger driver has been the spread of organized crime linked to drug trafficking, according to Bloomfield. While drug-related organized crime has been a problem across the continent for decades, “never has it spread so wide, and rarely has it penetrated so deeply into states and communities,” Crisis Group said in a report last year. Leftwing governments have been punished for failing to address the violence more than they have been toppled by US pressure.
If there is a foreign president whose policies are having an influence on Latin America, it is El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, Bloomfield wrote. Bloomfield described Bukele’s approach as an “authoritarian clampdown” that has involved arresting tens of thousands of people, mostly without legal process, and has become a model for other rightwing leaders in countries beset by gang and drug cartel-related violence. Bloomfield wrote that democracy has been eroded and human rights trampled upon, but Bukele claims that his strategy, best described as “security populism,” has turned one of the most violent countries in the world into one of the safest. Other rightwing populists have found success in vowing to emulate him.
In Brazil, Flávio Bolsonaro has made a crackdown on drug cartels and organized crime gangs the centrepiece of his campaign, according to Bloomfield. “We’re going to give the streets back to the Brazilian people,” Flávio Bolsonaro said at a recent campaign stop, vowing to chemically castrate rapists and reduce the age of criminal responsibility.
The US decision in May to designate two criminal organizations, the Red Command and First Capital Command (PCC), as terrorist organizations has put Lula on the back foot, Bloomfield reported. Bolsonaro has campaigned relentlessly on the issue, accusing Lula of weakness. Lula has talked about targeting the crime boss “who lives in a penthouse,” but has been more comfortable campaigning on improvements he wants to make in education and health. Flávio Bolsonaro, should he win, will almost certainly sign Brazil up to Trump’s Shield of the Americas, a coalition of 18 rightwing Latin American and Caribbean heads of state that promises to use “lethal military force to destroy the sinister cartels and terrorist networks,” according to Bloomfield.
Trump arguably paved the way for this new generation of Latin American political leader, Bloomfield wrote. His first victory in 2016 showed that posing as an outsider, using coarse language and embracing authoritarianism could be popular. Jair Bolsonaro was the first to emulate him, embracing the “Trump of the Tropics” tag. If Flávio Bolsonaro wins this month, either on Sunday or in the probable second round on 25 October, Trump’s ideology will dominate the continent, Bloomfield argued.
The security-driven shift to the right is likely to outlast Trump himself, according to Bloomfield. As long as voters believe only security populists can address organized crime, the right’s grip on Latin America will continue to strengthen regardless of who occupies the White House.