Analysts revise energy targets as Saudi cuts Arab Light OSP

Brent drops 0.9% as Trump rules out diesel export ban

Analysts at J.P. Morgan, Jefferies, CGS International, ttb wealth securities, and CIMB Securities issued updated views on a slate of energy and utility companies on October 5.

J.P. Morgan analysts wrote that National Grid’s asset and earnings growth targets are well underpinned, if not leaning toward the conservative side. The company said its regulated business was trading in line with expectations and forecast group EPS growth of 13% to 15% for fiscal 2027. “Over 90% of the company’s investments in the coming years will be in regulated businesses, underpinned by robust frameworks that offer a high degree of earnings and cash-flow visibility,” the analysts said. J.P. Morgan has an overweight rating on the stock with a 14.40-pound target price. Shares rose 0.8% to 11.55 pounds.

Separately, Jefferies analysts described National Grid’s first-half performance update as slightly positive, noting the grid operator now sees EPS growth for fiscal 2027 just above its previous 13% to 15% guidance. The 15% upper range of that implies around 88.9 pence, they wrote, which is 3% above consensus expectations.

Ithaca Energy is once again taking a differentiated but potentially more valuable path, Jefferies analyst Mark Wilson wrote. While market commentators have focused on who will buy BP’s North Sea assets, the London-listed energy company has made its first international acquisition offshore the east coast of Canada, he noted. The deal is immediately accretive and the basin has significant technical and operational parallels to the U.K. North Sea, he added. Shares rose 1.9% to 280.0 pence.

CGS International analysts said Medco Energi Internasional may benefit from quickening capital expenditure into visible growth projects. The company raised its 2026 oil and gas capital expenditure guidance to $450 million to $475 million from $415 million, and power capital expenditure guidance to $50 million from $15 million to accelerate development of the Sakakemang Block and the Dalle Energy Batam power plant expansion, the analysts noted. Given ongoing Middle East tensions, the brokerage also lifted its Brent oil-price assumptions to $82.50 to $90.00 per barrel for 2026 to 2027 from $80 to $85 a barrel. It raised the stock’s target price to 2,270.00 rupiah from 2,170.00 rupiah with an unchanged add rating. Shares rose 1.1% to 1,390.00 rupiah.

Gunkul Engineering might benefit from a new investment cycle in Thailand’s power infrastructure, ttb wealth securities analyst Nuttapop Prasitsuksant wrote, as the brokerage maintained the stock’s buy rating. Drivers include surging demand from the data-center investment boom and other advanced manufacturing industries, as well as Thailand’s policy to raise the share of renewable generation under the Power Development Plan 2026, the analyst said. The Thai company is exposed to this opportunity through its engineering, procurement, and construction services business and its renewable power development business. However, the brokerage trimmed the stock’s target price to 5.80 baht from 6.00 baht to partly reflect near-term drag from asset divestment. Shares rose 2.0% to 5.15 baht.

CIMB Securities analyst Muhammad Afif Bin Zulkaplly wrote that MISC’s earnings could be driven by higher tanker rates in the second half. September tanker rates surged following disruptions to Saudi Arabia’s oil shipments, with very large crude carrier rates averaging $231,500 per day, an increase of 81.3% over first-quarter averages, he noted. The impact could be more pronounced in the fourth quarter as higher-rate contracts feed through, he said. However, MISC’s proposed 2.85 billion ringgit acquisition of a 41.5% stake in Yinson, while offering strategic benefits, would raise its debt burden and delay cash returns, he added. The analyst raised MISC’s 2026 to 2028 earnings estimates by 1.7% to 15%. CIMB raised MISC’s target price to 9.55 ringgit from 9.37 ringgit and kept a buy rating. Shares rose 1.2% to 7.62 ringgit.

Oil prices fell in early trading on October 5 as recovering Middle East crude exports and the release of oil stocks by the Group of Seven eased concerns over supplies, Dow Jones Newswires reported. President Trump ruled out a diesel export ban, which would have tightened international products markets. Front-month Brent crude was down 0.9% to $101.32 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures declined 1.5% to $89.75. Further reinforcing expectations of looser crude oil market conditions, Saudi Arabia reduced the official selling price for its Arab Light grade to Asia by $3 a barrel for November loadings, widening its discount to the regional benchmark to $5 a barrel. Tensions in the region remained elevated, with several vessels coming under attack around the coasts of Oman and Yemen.