Wall Street bonus pool projected to grow as profits near $90 billion

Texas Stock Exchange courts firms as New York still leads on jobs

The New York securities industry is on pace to generate more than $90 billion in profits this year, according to estimates released by New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, a performance that would push the industry’s bonus pool higher and reverse a New York City forecast that had anticipated a 20% decline in bonuses. DiNapoli shared the figures in an assessment of the industry’s contribution to the state’s fiscal base, as reported by The Wall Street Journal.

The estimate reflects a year of strong results from the nation’s largest banks, which have profited from corporate dealmaking, initial public offerings, artificial intelligence investments and elevated market volatility, as well as from a resilient consumer base, DiNapoli said. The industry’s strong showing, if sustained, would translate into a larger year-end bonus pool for securities employees working in New York state.

The 2025 baseline was already a record year. The average bonus on Wall Street was $246,900 and the average total compensation was $561,770, with a total bonus pool of $49.2 billion, according to figures cited by DiNapoli. Adjusted for inflation, the all-time record was set before the 2008 financial crisis.

The forecast depends on the industry maintaining its current pace. DiNapoli described the broader economic outlook as “cloudy,” citing geopolitical conflict, a turbulent bond market, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase in September — its first in years — as factors reflecting concerns about sticky inflation. Big banks are scheduled to report third-quarter results next week, which will provide a fresh reading on the industry’s health.

For New York, the stakes are fiscal. Wall Street’s performance is a central contributor to the health of the state’s and city’s budgets; the state budget assumed bonuses for the finance and insurance industry would increase 7.3%, DiNapoli said. Higher pay translates directly into higher tax revenue.

Employment in the industry has also grown. New York City securities-industry employment rose 3.5% last year to 207,400, according to DiNapoli, and preliminary data suggests the industry will add another 5,300 jobs this year. That growth comes as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has been urging political changes, with some bankers and Wall Street fund managers warning that high taxes and other policies could drive jobs out of the city — a concern DiNapoli pushed back against by pointing to recent job gains.

Texas has emerged as the most prominent challenger to New York’s dominance in finance. The Texas Stock Exchange has been working to persuade large corporations to move their primary listings to the state, and Texas has expanded its business courts while several large financial institutions have established major presences there. Job data, however, shows Texas still has ground to make up: the state added 18,800 securities-industry jobs since 2019, compared with 24,300 additions in New York over the same period, according to DiNapoli.