Think tank: 400,000 UK ride-hail jobs could become obsolete
The London Assembly’s transport committee published a report this week calling on the government to devolve authority over autonomous passenger services to Transport for London. The committee said there was “considerable uncertainty around many of the claimed benefits of autonomous passenger vehicles” and raised concerns about impacts on public transport, congestion, safeguarding and accessibility for disabled passengers.
Committee chair Caroline Russell said the panel was not convinced that London should welcome robotaxis uncritically. “Rather than just accepting the autonomous passenger service model proposed by operators, London should be looking at the transport problems it is trying to solve and then considering what solutions this technology could provide,” Russell said.
For the robotaxi companies, London presents a commercial attraction and a logistical challenge. Commercially it is one of the biggest private hire markets in the world and a foothold in Europe; logistically it is a tricky test bed to prove their vehicles are viable anywhere. Compared with the grid system of US cities in particular, London presents narrower, twisting and unruly streets, without the kind of rules on jaywalking that give cars priority on the road. TfL is understood to see little benefit in the addition of robotaxi services to its crowded city streets, even if the numbers turn out to be relatively few in comparison to the wider traffic.
The regulatory architecture itself is the source of much of the dispute. Under current UK rules, TfL licenses passenger services, but the government decides whether autonomous vehicles may operate. When fully autonomous services begin, the Department for Transport would issue permits for robotaxis, with TfL able only to grant or refuse consent — not to regulate how the vehicles are used on London’s streets. TfL sees parallels with Uber’s earlier entry into London, when the regulator twice refused to renew the company’s licence on the grounds that it was not a “fit and proper” operator.
This weekend, members of the App Drivers and Couriers Union plan to protest at Wayve’s London base, following a similar action at Waymo’s Park Royal depot in August. ADCU London chair Abdurzak Hadi, an Uber driver, said the demonstrations concerned both jobs and safety. “For me as a driver, I’m thinking about competing with a machine that’s not going to get tired, and could work 24 hours a day,” Hadi said. “But as a Londoner with family, I’m thinking about safety. As licensed drivers we’re taught by TfL about safeguarding, looking out for a vulnerable child, or for abuse. Or looking after passengers who can only read your lips. We’re a safety net. But losing my job – that’s also losing a safety net for my family.”
Faisal Osman, 51, an east London Uber driver for 12 years, switched to the platform from a long commute to an IT engineering job to allow him to work nights when he had children. He knows four other engineers who joined Uber. “We all used to talk about AI taking our jobs in IT. We thought, we’re not earning as much driving but we’ll be safe for a while, support the family, pay the bills. But robocabs are a massive concern,” Osman said. He added: “People might be interested but it will decimate the livelihoods of many people including me – I really wanted some authorities to say no.”
Another driver, Florentina Ghiuzan, 42, from Essex, who started driving four years ago after returning to college, said she was shocked at the speed of TfL’s approval. “I think we should all be worried,” Ghiuzan said. “I was shocked TfL approved it so soon. I knew change would come. But I thought it would come with a solution for us.” She added: “Our earnings are the same or even lower since I started – and with the robotaxis on the market it could get even worse.” Ghiuzan said she was notified of the start of autonomous services as an Uber customer but received no notification as a driver. She also said: “Young people like them, it’s new, and you don’t have to pay the driver … I might have other skills, but for lots of drivers who are older and have done it their whole life, it’s going to be quite a challenge.”
A recent Centre for British Progress thinktank report estimated more than 400,000 UK drivers, including 121,000 in London, could soon find much of their work obsolete, and urged the government to tax autonomous vehicles to help pay for the social and economic consequences.
The GMB union has called for a “just transition” to help drivers reskill and find new work. Speaking at the Labour conference last month, the GMB’s Mark Betteridge said: “The people who do these jobs will know the reality far better of what change will look like … Drivers tell us they want some sort of transition plan to get through this.” Roads minister Justin Madders told the meeting that autonomous vehicles could bring “opportunities for well-paid and unionised jobs” and that the government wanted Britain to be a “world leader” in the technology, while acknowledging: “Sometimes government hasn’t worked on the impact on workers … We’re absolutely committed to making sure that doesn’t happen that time.”
An Uber spokesperson said: “Drivers and AVs [automated vehicles], which we believe will also offer considerable benefits to cities, are both expected to grow side by side for quite some time. That said, we shouldn’t hide that autonomous mobility will impact workers, riders, and the communities they live in. We are in conversations with the government and local stakeholders to ensure we can realise the promise of AVs while not leaving drivers and communities behind.” Uber also said it had not significantly increased its share of fares in London but that VAT changes meant drivers were keeping less of the fares customers paid, and that it was the only private hire operator in the UK recognising its drivers as workers with employment protections. Wayve, which has partnered with Uber to supply London’s first autonomous cabs, said it was taking a “deliberately phased approach.” A Wayve spokesperson said the company believed its robotaxis could contribute positively to London’s transport system — improving road safety, expanding connectivity and giving people more ways to travel — and described the firm’s relationship with TfL as positive and constructive.
Uber has announced plans to deploy 100,000 Nvidia robotaxis worldwide starting next year, and senior executives have said all new cars could be autonomous by 2040. Waymo’s fully autonomous cars already operate more than a quarter of all rides in San Francisco. More than 100,000 people in London are on Uber’s waitlist for the robotaxi service, which launched in September with human safety drivers in the front seat. Driverless trials expanded this week to Manchester.
London Mayor Sadiq Khan has signaled his own concerns. A spokesperson for Khan said the mayor was committed to ensuring that Londoners benefited from the opportunities new technologies could bring but shared “concerns about potential impacts on safety, congestion and jobs,” and that any changes needed to “work for our world-leading transport system – including taxi and private hire services, and those who drive them.”