Record-high ship attacks near Strait of Hormuz slow oil shipments

Oil flows through strait fall to 12.6 million barrels daily

Twelve vessels were attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz between 5 and 11 October, the largest weekly number of strikes reported to the UK’s Maritime Trade Operations agency since the US-Israeli war with Iran began, according to BBC Verify analysis of UKMTO data. Oil shipments through the waterway have fallen to about 12.6 million barrels per day, below the 15 million reported at the end of September and well under the pre-war baseline of some 17 million barrels per day.

The previous week saw 10 ships reporting attacks.

Six of the vessels were struck on a single Sunday, the highest one-day figure recorded by UKMTO. Four more attacks were reported in the days that followed.

BBC Verify collated incident reports published by the UKMTO on its website and created a timeline based on the first date cited in each report. The timeline is approximate because some incidents use the date of the attack and some the date on which it was reported.

The spike in strikes has coincided with a slowdown in oil shipments through the strait. About 12.6 million barrels per day transited the waterway on 13 October, data from trade intelligence firm Kpler shows, down from the 15 million reported at the end of September and well below the pre-war baseline of some 17 million barrels per day.

Experts say Tehran has been attacking ships in an effort to assert greater control over the waterway as the US military has increased the number of tankers it is shepherding through the southern part of the strait to evade Iranian strikes. Martin Kelly, CEO of Orbital Risk Intelligence, told BBC Verify that Iran has “evolved its strategy” in response and has been carrying out “near daily or multiple attacks every single day.” “The aim here is to stop the ships going through and to deter others,” Kelly said.

The attacks are no longer confined to the strait itself. Verified footage shows the Nicaragua-flagged tanker Petro Dolphin on fire, as filmed by the crew on a smaller boat nearby, after being struck by a drone close to the Sohar Anchorage, Oman, more than 250km from the waterway, according to maritime intelligence firm Vanguard. Eleven Indian seafarers were rescued but two remain missing, the Forward Seamen’s Union of India said.

The container ship GFS Pride sank after being struck by an unknown projectile in the strait on Tuesday. Twenty-one crew were safely evacuated. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps published footage of what appeared to be the same ship sinking and said the vessel was carrying “2,500 containers of contraband” and had taken an “unauthorised route.”

Other strikes have occurred hundreds of kilometers from the strait. A tanker was struck by multiple projectiles north of Qatar on Thursday 8 October, more than 500km away, resulting in multiple reported casualties, according to Vanguard. Another tanker was attacked close to the UAE town of Al-Jazirah al-Hamra on Friday 9 October, with verified footage showing crew members running across the deck and donning lifejackets as black smoke rose over the ship.

The US military’s Central Command posted on social media that despite the attacks, “commercial traffic continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz with co-ordinated protection from US forces and regional partners.” US Navy data indicates the number of vessels given assistance to navigate the strait during the first 10 days of October was up 85% compared with the same period in August.

Most oil shipped from Gulf Arab states in recent weeks has used a “shuttle” system, in which a fleet of tankers loads up and sails through the strait before transferring cargo to larger vessels in the Gulf of Oman. These shuttle ships use a route close to Oman’s coastline. Iran says this route is “unauthorised” and insists vessels take an alternative path closer to its own shore.

Assisted transits were a key factor in helping drive Middle East oil flows back toward pre-war levels in September. Iranian exports have not participated in that recovery; they have completely stalled as a result of the US blockade of Iranian ports and ships.

The IRGC’s navy has said strikes would not be “limited to the Strait of Hormuz” and later announced a “new deployment formation” across the region, according to Iranian state media. Kelly told BBC Verify that Iran is widening its attacks and targeting ships near the coast of Gulf Arab states and in the Gulf of Oman.