Experts see case as political message, not legal victory
The Justice Department’s emergency request asking a federal judge to block California from processing ballots returned by voters on a 20,000-name list of people the federal government says are “likely noncitizens” is unprecedented and an especially unusual request given that voting is already underway, according to NPR. Election experts have said the lawsuit seems more about sending a political message or teeing up future challenges than winning in court, given that the constitution gives states the authority to administer elections.
At a separate press conference Monday, Acting Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter announced election-crime charges against 28 California green-card holders, all of whom appeared on the 20,000 list. The charges bring the Justice Department’s seven-week nationwide noncitizen-voting caseload to 113 charges across 20 states. “This Department of Justice will not look the other way while noncitizens vote in federal elections,” McCotter said. “Unfortunately the same can’t be said for California and L.A. County.”
The Justice Department’s Monday court filing asks a federal judge to stop California and Los Angeles County from processing ballots returned by people on the 20,000-name list. In the filing, the department wrote: “Once illegally cast ballots are counted and commingled with lawful votes, the resulting harm may be impossible to remedy. The urgency is heightened because of the fundamental right to vote and to have one’s lawful vote counted without dilution.” The state has asked for specific information on how the federal government arrived at its noncitizen conclusions and has not received it, according to NPR.
All 28 people charged Monday are green-card holders, and all appeared on the list of 20,000 names the Justice Department gave California officials last week, according to DOJ officials. The defendants are accused of voting or registering to vote despite not being U.S. citizens; a number of them do not appear to have actually voted, and some registered to vote more than 20 years ago.
In the past seven weeks, the Justice Department has charged 113 noncitizens across 20 states with voting and registration crimes, officials said at Monday’s press conference. The DOJ has been announcing handfuls of new charges almost every day as early voting gets underway in many states. According to NPR, noncitizen voting has never been found to be a widespread problem in American elections, and the Trump administration is devoting significant resources to uncovering the ineligible voting that does occur.
Many of those charged are accused of making false statements in their naturalization applications, which ask whether applicants previously registered to vote or claimed U.S. citizenship. Previous research has shown that when noncitizen voting and registration occurs, it is often the result of bureaucratic error and not intentional fraud. New Jersey revealed this summer that a software glitch at the DMV registered more than 6,000 people to vote even though they had indicated they were noncitizens. Bill Essayli, the First Assistant U.S. Attorney for California’s Central District, downplayed that possibility on Monday.
“It’s not something that just happens to you,” Essayli said. “They either attested to it when they got a driver’s license, or they went out of their way to file a voter registration form, and they swore under oath that they were a citizen.”
UCLA election law expert Rick Hasen, who runs the university’s Safeguarding Democracy Project, said the charges appear intended to make noncitizen voting “look like a bigger issue than it is.” “Given that there’s over 20 million registered voters in California, this is quite a small number of allegations,” Hasen said. “And we don’t know how many of these allegations will even pan out. And so even if all of these were in fact people who were illegally voting, it’s a drop in the bucket compared to the number of voters in California.”
The Justice Department’s court filing is a continuation of a dispute that began this summer with President Trump’s primetime speech on election integrity. It took a major turn last week when the federal government delivered a flash drive to Los Angeles County containing 20,000 names and a 48-hour deadline to investigate them. Local and state officials declined to do so, and the federal government sued.
California Secretary of State Shirley Weber wrote to McCotter on Oct. 13: “The extraordinary measures you demand are contrary to both federal and state law. Withholding ballots from some duly registered voters and segregating and refusing to tabulate voted ballots submitted by others, is an unprecedented suspension — and even denial — of voting rights.”
Los Angeles County assistant county counsel Peter Bollinger wrote to McCotter on Oct. 15: “we are not authorized to, or are prohibited from, taking the actions requested in your letter under both federal and state law. The actions described would disenfranchise those in question without due process.” The letter noted the Justice Department list included voters from outside Los Angeles County whose records the office does not maintain.
Both letters cited the National Voter Registration Act, a federal law that bars states from systematically removing ineligible voters from state voter rolls during the 90 days before an election. The law is meant to prevent mistakes that could erroneously purge eligible voters before an election without giving them time to correct errors.
The dispute escalated Friday when McCotter warned California officials in a letter that they could face criminal prosecution for knowingly processing ballots “cast by individuals identified by federal agencies as noncitizens.” That evening, President Trump wrote on Truth Social: “They will all go to jail for a long period of time!!!”
There are also questions about the methodology the Trump administration used to identify likely noncitizens. A July letter from the Department of Homeland Security alleged the state had a potential 190,000 noncitizens on its rolls. McCotter said Monday that the 20,000 figure represents the people the Justice Department had the most confidence were noncitizens after DHS cross-referenced various government databases and other records with identifying information.
McCotter and other Justice Department officials blamed California for not handing over its entire voter roll — including partial Social Security numbers and driver’s license numbers — which they said could help clarify the citizenship status of these voters. So far 26 federal judges have dismissed DOJ demands for that data across the country, according to NPR.
Hasen said the actions carry three risks: “One is the risk of disenfranchising eligible voters. The other is the risk that it further undermines voter confidence in the electoral process by making it seem like [noncitizen voting] is a major problem when it is not. And the third risk is that this is going to be used as some sort of pretext to try to seize ballots or interfere after the election is over.”
Dana Lewis, the Republican county recorder for Pinal County, Arizona, said local officials nationwide are communicating about the situation, the same way they did after the FBI raided an elections office in Fulton County, Georgia, in January. If those officials are administering a race this fall that is close or contested, they feel they could be next, she said. “When this impacts another jurisdiction, you automatically have to feel that,” Lewis said. “If it’s happening in Georgia, if it’s happening in Colorado or California, we’re all watching.”
Half a dozen voting and civil rights organizations filed to intervene in the case last week to argue the Justice Department’s demands are unlawful. Election experts have said the lawsuit against California seems more about sending a political message or teeing up future challenges than winning this case in court, given that the constitution gives states the authority to administer elections.
Hasen wrote last week: “I expect this lawsuit to go nowhere.”
Los Angeles County’s top voting official, Dean Logan, told NPR earlier this fall that his office is trying to counter those concerns. “Given everything leading up to this election, what we’re trying to remind voters is the best way to secure the election is through your participation,” Logan said. “Don’t be distracted by the litigation. Don’t be distracted by the mis- and disinformation. If you have questions, let us know, let us answer them. But don’t let this keep you from voting. Because if you’re not voting, none of the rest matters, right?”
Recent polling suggests a sizable portion of the American public believes immigration enforcement will be present at voting locations this fall, despite federal law banning armed federal agents from the polls. Non-white voters are more likely than white voters to say they fear voting could put them at risk of being questioned by immigration authorities despite being citizens.