Von der Leyen puts Ukraine’s 2027 funding gap at €70 billion
EU leaders are expected to seek agreement at a December summit on another plan to shore up support for Ukraine. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that Kyiv faces a €70 billion funding gap in 2027, while saying she expects Ukraine’s other international partners to help raise the sum.
Jana Kobzová, co-director of the European Security Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the December EU leaders’ summit “will be the moment” when “we should have a clear idea and mechanism” for providing the €70 billion ahead of key elections. “I think the urgency and the consciousness on the side of the European leaders is already there,” she said.
The Guardian’s standfirst, written by Brussels correspondent Jennifer Rankin, said: “As US support ebbs away, looming European elections and growing financial strains across the continent could fracture the precious coalition that has kept Ukraine afloat.”
At European Council headquarters in Brussels on Friday, Volodymyr Zelenskyy entered the summit room and the EU’s 27 leaders stood and applauded, greeting him with hugs and handshakes. European Council president António Costa told Zelenskyy and the media, “This is no time to withdraw the support to Ukraine,” and called for increased pressure on Russia. Zelenskyy said he was happy to have “huge support” from “real leaders.”
A few days after reaching his diesel deal with the Kremlin, U.S. President Donald Trump said Zelenskyy was more difficult to deal with than Vladimir Putin and blamed Ukraine’s leader for rocketing oil prices, without referring to the impact of the U.S. war on Iran. The Guardian contrasted those remarks with Europe’s reception of Zelenskyy and wrote: “As US support crumbles, Europe seems to be stepping up.”
A photograph captioned “US patience is running out with Ukraine,” credited to Kristina Solovyova/Reuters, showed U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff meeting Vladimir Putin in Russia. Another, credited to Heiko Junge/Pool NTB/AP, showed Zelenskyy at the centre with Norwegian prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finnish president Alexander Stubb.
European financial contributions vary by country
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy’s Ukraine Support Tracker says Europe, including non-EU countries such as the UK and Norway, spent €236 billion supporting Ukraine from 2022 through April 2026, compared with a U.S. outlay of €115 billion.
The Guardian wrote, “While Trump is weakening sanctions, Europe is promising more.” It reported that the EU had passed 21 rounds of sanctions against Russia and, last year, agreed to raise a €90 billion loan for Ukraine, described as an unprecedented sum for a non-member state. The EU had also opened accession negotiations with Kyiv and provided shelter to 4.4 million Ukrainian refugees.
Germany, the second-largest donor, spent €54 billion since the start of the war. The Guardian said the contribution was particularly crucial after Trump ceased virtually all new U.S. funding. The Kiel Institute described Germany’s contribution as “sizeable but not exceptional” given the scale of the German economy.
Four Nordic countries together gave more than Germany despite having a combined population only one-third of Germany’s. France and Italy gave less than Germany. The Kiel Institute identified Nordic, Baltic and other north European states as Ukraine’s most generous donors when contributions were measured against national income.
An accompanying graphic covered financial aid from 24 January 2022 through 31 August 2026 as a percentage of each country’s 2021 GDP. It showed financial aid equal to 4.17% of GDP for Denmark and 3.77% for Estonia, compared with 1.49% for Germany, 1.1% for France, 1% for Italy and 0.86% for the UK.
The Guardian said that, with Ukraine’s huge bill to defend itself growing and Russia’s relentless attacks continuing to wreak a heavy toll, these more generous donors might arguably feel that Europe’s biggest economies and other western allies could do more to shoulder these ever-rising costs.
SpaceX systems and Patriot interceptors
The Guardian wrote that Europe “is not able to replace US military dominance in areas such as intelligence.” It said disruption to U.S. SpaceX technologies used by Ukraine in frontline drone operations and in air defences protecting civilians from Russian air attacks exposed that limit.
Zelenskyy said the United States had intentionally throttled Starlink satellite internet access, a charge that senior figures in the Trump administration denied. Ukraine also depends on U.S.-made Patriot interceptors capable of shooting down Russian ballistic missiles. That week, Zelenskyy accused the Trump administration of preventing European countries from passing on their Patriot stocks to Ukraine.
The Guardian characterized the outlook as “more complex and less encouraging for Ukraine” as the country approached its fifth winter since Russia launched its all-out invasion.
Elections in Spain, France, Poland and Italy
The Guardian said Europe was entering a “supercycle of elections” in which “the far-right are expected to make gains.” National votes are due in Spain, France, Poland and Italy, four of the five biggest EU member states by population.
Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at the Eurasia Group, said the largest risk for Ukraine was not Trump’s opinions but the potential for European support to fragment. He said there was a risk 2027 would be the year “when political reality, electoral reality, policy reality, economic reality catches up with Europe and prevents it being able to go further in its support for Ukraine.”
The Guardian assessed that France’s elections could be the most consequential. It described Marine Le Pen as “the far-right leader and frontrunner” seeking to present herself as “the candidate to restore order and security,” after “days of rioting and looting across French cities.” Le Pen has vowed to cease aid to Ukraine within six months of taking office “because we simply cannot do it any more.”
Speaking to the Financial Times, Le Pen also vowed to slash France’s contributions to the EU budget. The Guardian said those pledges raised questions about a proposed €100 billion Ukraine fund in the 2028–34 budget cycle. Beyond Ukraine, The Guardian said her election could plunge the EU into “a deep internal crisis that will consume political energies and attention.”
Rahman said “European support for Ukraine is already fragmenting.” The €90 billion Ukraine loan was agreed by only 24 EU countries, with Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia opting out. A Le Pen victory could tilt the balance, especially if anti-Ukraine parties made gains in Spain, Poland and Italy.
“Le Pen is the biggest gamechanger because she will provide cover for many other countries to say: ‘enough is enough, we can’t keep funding,’” Rahman said. He called that scenario “a really dark picture for Ukraine, a really sad picture for Ukraine” and said the danger did not concern Ukraine’s battlefield performance because Ukraine had done “a remarkable job of holding the line.” Rahman said Europe had discussed the risk for a very long time and had “promised Ukraine many times it would not allow to happen” the outcome in which “through strategic patience, Russia gains in the negotiating room what it has not been able to gain on the battlefield.” He called this “precisely the risk Ukraine is now confronting.”
To some extent, The Guardian said, EU Russia policy was protected after a recent decision to keep sanctions in place for three years and avoid divisive rollover decisions every six months. Kobzová said a Le Pen victory in six months’ time could create a bigger problem than financing Ukraine. “If there is a huge shift in Europe as a result of these elections that are going to affect the way the EU itself works, then Ukraine might become collateral damage.”
The challenges ahead include a quantified 2027 funding gap, uneven European contributions, continued Ukrainian reliance on U.S. technology and election-driven risks to the political conditions surrounding further support. Ukraine is approaching its fifth winter since Russia’s all-out invasion.
Five days after Mette Frederiksen urged EU leaders to maintain Ukraine funding through 2027, von der Leyen’s €70 billion estimate gave that appeal a concrete financing test ahead of the December summit.