Patriot interceptors, F-16 sustainment also depend on Washington
Degraded Starlink communications hobbled Kyiv’s ability to conduct midrange drone attacks and intercept Russia’s new-generation jet-powered drones beginning late Tuesday night, Ukrainian officials said. One Ukrainian unit reported losing control of drones midflight as a result of the disruption, preventing the unit from destroying a Russian rocket arsenal.
Starlink and its military counterpart Starshield are unique in their satellite coverage, signal strength and transmission capabilities, according to people familiar with the rollout of competing systems. Canada and European countries are developing alternatives that will reach some of Starlink’s scale and potency, but not before 2028 at the earliest, those people said.
America’s globe-spanning ballistic-missile early-warning system, first developed during the Cold War, can detect heat from a rocket launch, which is then confirmed by a worldwide network of missile-tracking radars, said Thomas Withington of the Royal United Services Institute, a military-focused think tank. Intelligence from the system has allowed Ukrainian forces to target incoming missiles and warn the public of attacks. It “is close to irreplaceable,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst and head of Gady Consulting who has spent long periods with Ukrainian forces. Ukraine’s European allies provide satellite and other airborne intelligence, but it lacks the precision, scope and capabilities of that coming from the US. In terms of missile alerts, “Europe has nothing comparable and won’t for years,” Gady said.
It could not be determined why Ukraine might not have received warnings about recent Russian attacks. Trump has said the US is still sharing intelligence with Ukraine. Some analysts suspected Russia might have conducted the launches so close to Ukraine that their heat signatures were not detectable in time. Russia is also firing smaller tactical and more-mobile weapons that are harder to detect than strategic long-range missiles. “The US ballistic-missile warning system was never designed for tactical use,” Withington said.
Ukraine has relied on the US for advanced missile interceptors, particularly Patriot PAC-3 MSE rockets, to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles. But even before Trump renewed pressure on Ukraine over its strikes on Russian refineries, supplies of those interceptors had dwindled. US stockpiles had been spent in the Middle East earlier this year defending against Iranian strikes on US forces and allies there.
Europe and Ukraine are working on alternatives. The makers of the French-Italian Samp/T say their latest version can tackle ballistic missiles, and the system is already on its way to Ukraine. At least two Ukrainian companies are working on ballistic-missile interceptors with European peers, with the first expected to come into operation as early as the middle of next year. A British startup says it is set to produce its own.
Ukrainian intelligence services have developed their own data on Russian infrastructure and military assets using a mix of allied intelligence, Ukrainian drones, human intelligence and other sources including hacked video cameras inside Russia. But the US has also helped Ukraine conduct strikes on Russian assets, according to people familiar with the operations. US technology and intelligence have helped Ukraine refine its data for strikes, including through precise information on the altitude of targets, according to a European military official.
One crucial capability: American surveillance can give a very detailed picture of Russian air defenses through the systems’ electromagnetic signatures, Withington said. Information on weak spots in Russia’s aerial defenses has helped Ukraine guide drones and missiles to avoid interception.
According to a Wall Street Journal analysis, Ukraine has defied the odds by developing its own weapons to wean itself off US help, and Europe has stepped up its financial and military support for Kyiv as Washington has pulled back. Overall, Ukraine is now much less beholden to America for its defense than when Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022. But there are still things that only the U.S. is equipped to provide. “The remaining dependence is concentrated in a few critical areas,” said Gady.
Ukraine has gathered a fleet of secondhand F-16 jet fighters donated by European allies over recent years. Kyiv relies on the US for spare parts, maintenance, software upgrades and arms for the aircraft. Much of the F-16 supply is being paid for by Ukraine’s European allies in NATO through a program called the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List, or PURL. Ukraine’s NATO allies and others, including Australia and New Zealand, have pledged more than $4 billion to PURL since it was launched last year.
A halt to PURL would deprive Ukraine of vital equipment, but Washington may be reluctant to back out of the program, given it is an export earner for US defense companies. Ukraine’s stocks of munitions for the F-16s also dried up several months ago, and pilots are reliant on the planes to shoot down the jet-powered drones currently pummeling Ukraine, air-defense officers in the country said.
Spare parts to fix the US-supplied M777 howitzer must still get Washington’s sign-off, even though they are made in the UK. Trump has demanded that Ukraine stop hitting Russian oil refineries and called for Zelensky to step down, raising the prospect that the US could cut off its backing for Kyiv in the war.