Alethea found one fraudulent video drew roughly 857,000 views in 24 hours
Russian operatives are pumping out fabricated claims about Democratic candidates, AI-manipulated videos of celebrities and fake posts impersonating real news outlets in an effort to influence American voters in the final run-up to Election Day. A Russian operation put that playbook to work this week to spread a baseless accusation against a Democratic U.S. Senate candidate. Darren Linvill and several other research groups attributed the two fraudulent videos to Russian operators the research community has dubbed Storm-1516. The network is known for staging fake videos with actors and laundering their claims through influencer accounts with large followings.
The two fraudulent videos targeting the Senate candidate were posted Tuesday on X by an account created the previous month with few followers. The account’s profile said it was based in the U.S., but X publicly flagged that it might be using a proxy such as a virtual private network, which could disguise its location.
Graphika, a research company that analyzes online communities, said the videos were likely created using artificial intelligence. Linvill said a hallmark of Storm-1516 videos is the use of real actors whose faces are swapped using AI to look like someone else.
The post was immediately shared by a network of 15 accounts Linvill flagged as bots. About 12 hours later, one of the videos was shared in new posts by three X accounts with large followings. Researchers said those accounts had previously amplified other narratives attributed to Storm-1516, and one has solicited paid partnerships on X. Soon, other X accounts began resharing the large accounts’ posts in replies to politicians and journalists.
One of the two fake videos racked up roughly 857,000 views within 24 hours, according to an analysis by Alethea, a threat intelligence company. By late Wednesday, X had suspended the account that first posted the videos and one of the large accounts that reshared the claim; the two other large accounts removed their posts.
Linvill, co-director of Clemson University’s Media Forensics Hub who has tracked foreign propaganda campaigns for years, said the Russian playbook is consistent. A false claim or divisive narrative is seeded on social media or on a fake website posing as a news organization or think tank. The material is spread by state media, automated fake accounts or, increasingly, paid influencers, in the hope that it will be seen and repeated by real people.
Linvill compared the influencer work to marketing campaigns. “In the same way that marketing companies will pay an influencer to disseminate, you know, ‘Nike’s a great shoe,’ the Russians do it with false information and made-up lies,” he said. “They use influencers that know their audience, that are part of that audience, and they know how to give that audience a message that they want to hear.” He also said, “At the end of the day, the main issue for Russia is and has to be Ukraine.”
Researchers who track online influence operations and lawmakers who’ve been briefed by the intelligence community said Kremlin-backed groups are renewing familiar tactics they’ve used to sow distrust and discord in previous elections in the U.S. and around the world. Those researchers and lawmakers said the goal is to exacerbate divisions, erode confidence in democracy and, crucially, undermine U.S. support for Ukraine. Rep. Jim Himes of Connecticut, the ranking member of the House intelligence committee, told reporters this week, “It’s a carnival out there.” He added, “They’re throwing everything out there to generate a sense of chaos and anarchy.”
On Wednesday, Himes and Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., vice chairman of the Senate intelligence committee, told reporters they’d seen a recent classified intelligence report on foreign election meddling showing Russia opposes candidates of either party who have backed Ukraine. Himes stressed that while Russia and other foreign countries have sought to influence voters, there has been no indication that they have been able to interfere with the actual mechanics of voting. “Nothing out there suggests that there is either the capability or the intent to do interference, whereas there is a pretty robust influence environment,” Himes said.
In the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, Storm-1516 posted fraudulent videos making similar unfounded accusations against Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz and purporting to show ballots for President Trump being torn up. Linvill said the operation tries to glom on to narratives that are already circulating among Americans. “It is hard to persuade anybody of anything, ever,” he said. “But what you can do is reinforce beliefs.”
This election cycle, Russian operations have also spread messages about Democrats turning away from supporting Israel and fabricated news reports accusing Democratic candidates of corruption. Intelligence officials have long said Russia has favored Trump and targeted Democrats in its efforts to erode U.S. support for Ukraine.
The same Russian operations now active in the U.S. midterms have also targeted elections this year in France, Germany and elsewhere. They have used AI-generated audio and impersonated politicians, celebrities and media outlets, Graphika said in a new report on Friday. “They have run this playbook in half a dozen other countries in the past six months throughout Europe. We’re just the next in line,” Linvill said. “They attack with these same themes. Anything that’s going to make a candidate seem degenerate, seem corrupt, seem incapable.”
Lisa Kaplan, who founded Alethea, said, “I increasingly have come to think of Russia as essentially a dark money PAC.” She added, “You know they’re going to be running advertisements. You want to understand what’s out there. You want to understand if they’re actually effective in moving people in one direction or another.” Kaplan said the final-stage focus on polarizing issues was less about shaping voters’ views and more about inflaming anger or fear to affect turnout. “In these final posts in the lead up to the election, it’s really more about evoking that emotion,” she said.
Researchers tracking Storm-1516 and other groups expect more false claims and fake videos, with the operations focusing on voting and ballot processing in the period immediately surrounding Election Day. NPR’s Eric McDaniel contributed to this report.