Talarico and Paxton enter final stretch of Texas Senate race

Talarico victory could have implications beyond Texas

Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton enter the final few days of a U.S. Senate race in Texas, and the Associated Press reported Oct. 23 that the contest could turn on several points of friction. The outcome will help decide which party controls Congress during President Donald Trump’s final two years in office. AP framed the closing questions around differences between the candidates’ messages, Trump’s role in Paxton’s campaign, Elon Musk’s spending and whether Talarico could turn Democratic enthusiasm into a victory.

At a rally this week, Talarico told a crowd, “We’re going to shock the world when we take back Texas.” He presented the race as an opportunity for his party to take back Texas. Earlier that day, at a University of Houston rally, Talarico said, “We have an affordability crisis because we have a corruption crisis.” He added, “But we can change that in this election, in this state, in this race, if we come together not as Democrats or Republicans but as Texans.” His rally included no direct attack on the Republican Party, though the race requires him to win GOP voters.

Talarico, a Presbyterian seminary student, compared the contest to David locked in battle with Goliath, or, in his wording, billionaire megadonors. “(David) may not have had as many weapons, but he had faith, he had hope and he had a slingshot,” he said. “You are my slingshot.” AP reported that his strategy was to stir hope among Texans despite the “D” beside his name.

Paxton, at his own rally hours later, told a crowd, “If we lose Texas, we lose America.” He described the election as a drop of water above the Continental Divide, the line running down the spine of the Rocky Mountains, where water flows to the Pacific Ocean on one side and the Atlantic on the other. Speaking near the U.S.-Mexico border, he said, “They end up 3,000 miles apart. That’s what our elections are like now.” Paxton added, “It’s the America our founders gave us versus something they wouldn’t recognize.”

AP reported that a Senate seat that had seemed like a Republican lock when the year began had drawn attention to Paxton’s record. That record includes impeachment by his own party over corruption accusations and a very public divorce. Paxton nevertheless won President Donald Trump’s endorsement and defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a primary. In the closing days, he argued that Talarico was out of step with Texas and said a vote for Talarico “is a vote for every dangerous idea that Democrats across the country are putting forward.” Paxton warned that a Talarico victory would mean violent criminals would destroy the country and the Supreme Court would become a rubber stamp.

Paxton also emphasized Talarico’s support for transgender rights and previous statements such as “God is nonbinary.” AP said Talarico responded by criticizing Paxton on corruption, linking him to the struggling economy, trying to avoid partisan divisions and offering a positive agenda. Talarico’s appeal to Texans across party lines stood in contrast to Paxton’s focus on cultural issues and threats to the country.

Democratic efforts to win Texas have repeatedly ended in disappointment over years, and AP noted that former congressman Beto O’Rourke lost to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018 by less than 3 percentage points. The report said Talarico had generated at least as much enthusiasm, amassed more money and faced a less formidable opponent in Paxton. Supporters who had lived through previous campaigns held conflicting views: confidence that Talarico could win in the deeply conservative state, but also concern that he would fall short like others before him.

In a state with a majority of Republican voters, Paxton was betting that partisan loyalties would hold. Carmen Calderone, the Nueces County GOP chair, said in a warm-up speech at Paxton’s rally, “It’s simple math.” He added, “We can win if we turn out the vote.” Paxton’s slogan for his final bus tour was “Come and take it.” AP said there was ample evidence that Talarico had won over independents and several better-known Republicans. Neil Bush, the brother of Republican President George W. Bush, endorsed the Democrat this week, along with a few other figures from the Republican Party’s older guard.

AP described the contest as the most expensive Senate race. AdImpact measured total ad spending at just under $340 million since each candidate locked up his nomination. Although Talarico’s campaign spending outpaced Paxton’s, big donors, including Elon Musk, whom AP described as the world’s richest man, aided the Republican candidate through super PACs. AP reported that Musk’s companies Tesla and SpaceX, as well as Musk himself, were headquartered in Texas, and that he had staked millions of dollars to defend the state’s Republican majority in Congress.

AP said Trump’s influence on the race was less clear, while Musk’s was not. Musk contributed a total of $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund. The fund gave $158 million to Texas PAC, the largest contributor to Paxton’s campaign, and Musk gave another $10 million to the Paxton-supporting Lone Star Liberty PAC. Paxton, who now had an advantage in total spending, did not discuss Musk. AP said the money nevertheless supported Talarico’s corruption argument. At his rally, Talarico said, “Ken Paxton is funded by one dude.” He added, “He wants his very own personal United States senator.”

President Donald Trump had flown to Texas several times and praised Paxton’s work as attorney general, though not his appearance and attire. Paxton had consistently supported Trump and was hoping Texas would be a place where the president’s presence, in person and on camera, would help deliver a victory. AP said Trump’s poor approval ratings might dampen that advantage, while Paxton needed to motivate enough Republicans to turn out.

Talarico described the forces arrayed against him as three Goliaths — “the richest man in the world, the most powerful man in the world, the most corrupt politician in Texas” — a framing that matched his campaign message about corruption. Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, said Talarico’s forward-looking message could appeal to an electorate weary of partisan politics by presenting the race as “high-stakes drama.” Rottinghaus said Paxton’s argument against a Talarico victory might struggle with voters dissatisfied with the economic status quo in a state — and a nation — led by Republicans. “The fact that people are shocked into reassessing their own partisan beliefs is because of a sour economy,” he said.

The Associated Press said a Talarico victory in a Republican state would have implications beyond Texas. AP also said a Paxton victory would thwart Democrats’ expectation that the state’s shifting demographics would eventually prevail after decades of Republican dominance. The report said the result would help decide which party controls Congress in Trump’s final two years in office.

With the race in its final few days, the competing claims remain Talarico’s promise to take Texas back and Paxton’s warning that losing the state would mean losing the country. AP’s report from Austin, written by Jesse Bedayn, left the questions it raised open.