Only small candy bags posted growth through mid-October

U.S. Halloween candy sales fell 6.7% in the month ending Oct. 17 compared with the same period a year earlier, according to NielsenIQ. The market research firm also noted an 11.7% decline in candy sales in mid-September, erasing the preseason gains Halloween candy had posted in the previous two years. Chris Costagli, a NielsenIQ vice president and food thought leader, said high gas prices had worsened Americans’ concerns about affordability and were dampening demand for Halloween treats.

The cost pressure extended to fuel and other household purchases. As of Friday, the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.29, up nearly 40% from the prior year. Costagli described the squeeze in consumer spending: “I think what you’re seeing now is a consumer that’s spending so much additional money on fuel and housing and clothing and food,” Costagli said. “Some of the decisions they’re making about Halloween candy, it’s not necessarily because, ‘I notice it’s more expensive than last year,’ it’s, ‘I can’t afford it this year because I’ve paid so much more for so many other things. I just don’t have the financial means to buy it this year.’” Small bags were the only sizes seeing sales growth through mid-October, while large and extra-large bags were seeing the biggest declines, Costagli said.

U.S. candy prices have been climbing faster than the rate of inflation for several years. Government data showed that as of September, candy and gum prices were 44% higher over a five-year period, compared with a 22.5% rise in prices for all food eaten at home. That week, Aldi was advertising a 135-piece Mars Inc. variety pack, including Milky Way, Trix and Snickers, for $19.87. That was almost the price consumers paid for a 250-piece variety pack five years ago.

Chocolate makers also confronted a volatile input market. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics cited poor weather in West Africa, which supplies 70% of the world’s chocolate, and speculative trading in the cocoa futures market as factors behind global cocoa prices reaching a record high of $10,710 per metric ton in January 2025. Cocoa prices had fallen steadily since then and hit $3,241 per metric ton in March.

They began climbing again in the spring as the Iran war disrupted Africa’s fertilizer supplies. The El Niño weather pattern was also expected to hurt production, with hot, dry conditions expected through February.

The sales pullback was not limited to chocolate. The average price of non-chocolate Halloween candies, including gummies and lollipops, was $6.08 per pound in the nine weeks ending Oct. 17, about 3% lower than a year earlier, according to Nielsen data. The lower prices did not produce a sales increase.

Sally Lyons Wyatt, a global executive vice president and food industry adviser for Circana, said one way U.S. consumers have handled higher grocery prices is by making smaller and more frequent trips to the supermarket and buying products right before they intend to use them. She said that pattern made her wonder whether shoppers were waiting until closer to Halloween to buy candy.

“People are very intentional and thoughtful about what they want to consume, not just for holidays, but in general,” she said. “I do believe we will still see softness overall with candy, but I don’t think Halloween is doomed.”

The National Confectioners Association, a trade group representing candy makers such as Mars, Smarties Candy Co. and Ferrara Candy Co., said it remained optimistic about Halloween sales. “We are just now entering the peak period for Halloween and consumer enthusiasm remains incredibly strong,” the group said Friday in a statement.

The early figures left the holiday’s full demand pattern unresolved. NielsenIQ had measured falling sales, and lower non-chocolate prices had not generated an increase. Wyatt said some consumers may wait until closer to Halloween, while the trade group said the peak period was just beginning.