Useful Senate clues could arrive by 8 p.m. ET
David Wasserman, senior elections analyst at the Cook Political Report, kicked off Election Day with an interview on NPR’s Morning Edition about his closing thoughts on the campaign strategy of Republicans and Democrats and his tips to get an early read on the election returns. While speaking to NPR’s Michel Martin, Wasserman said the first useful election-return clues could arrive between 7 and 7:30 p.m. ET as Florida’s early votes start rolling in. He said large batches of votes from Texas and Ohio by 8 p.m. ET could offer a clearer picture of the battle for control of the Senate.
Wasserman cautioned that exit polls can show which issues matter to voters but are not necessarily reliable for determining who is winning. SSRS conducts exit polling for major television networks by combining Election Day interviews with a pre-election survey, and that survey faces low response rates and the same challenges as other polls. “We really have to wait for the hard results to be able to draw inferences on what’s happening,” he said.
Returns were due to arrive in stages, and national attention was focused on Senate and governor’s races. Wasserman was also watching House districts for early signs of how the night might unfold.
Wasserman also assessed the final campaign push by President Trump and former President Barack Obama. He said Trump’s effort to energize his base was occurring as he struggled to retain voters who had helped elect him, including some who had previously voted for Obama twice.
According to Wasserman, many of those voters were drawn to Trump’s promises during the 2024 presidential election of a stronger economy, fewer foreign conflicts and protection of popular social safety net programs. He said independents now gave Trump low marks on all three, helping Democrats gain an advantage. NPR identified affordability as a top issue of the election cycle.
Some Republican candidates were also distancing themselves from Trump, Wasserman said. They preferred to make their races a choice between themselves and their Democratic opponents rather than a referendum on the president’s performance.
Among the House districts Wasserman was watching, Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District was a close Lexington-area race whose polls were scheduled to close relatively early, offering an early indication of the national picture. Florida’s 22nd and 14th Congressional Districts were both toss-ups, one in South Florida and the other in Tampa. If Democrats won both, Wasserman said, those results would signal a strong night for the party.
South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District was another race on Wasserman’s list: the contest for Republican Nancy Mace’s open seat in the Charleston area. He described the Senate contest as close and said it could affect the district outcome.
Wasserman saw Virginia’s 2nd, 1st and 5th Congressional Districts as three different tests of how the night might unfold. A win for Republican Jen Kiggans in the 2nd District would be a better-than-expected result for Republicans. The 1st District race between Republican Rob Wittman and Democrat Shannon Taylor could go either way.
In the 5th District, a win by Democrat Tom Perriello over Republican John McGuire could indicate that Democrats were not merely having a good night but were riding a wave large enough to reshape the political map. Wasserman described that possibility by saying, “batten down the hatches because this could be a tsunami.”
For viewers, Wasserman said they did not have to spend all of election night refreshing results and might want to wait until 7:30 p.m. ET before checking in. Separately, he said the first useful clues could arrive between 7 and 7:30 p.m. ET. Exit polls could identify the issues that mattered to voters without establishing who was winning, so drawing inferences required hard results.