Early returns, turnout and state benchmarks frame the 2026 midterms

Michigan Senate stakes and Texas vote totals test Democratic paths

NPR’s election-night guide by Domenico Montanaro identifies six measures for understanding how the night might unfold and which party might control Congress. The guide covers races for governor and senator, the House and state legislatures, but concentrates on early returns and voting groups that may provide clues before most statewide contests are called.

The Michigan Senate race carries direct consequences for control of the chamber. Montanaro said if Republicans flip the race, Democrats’ threshold for winning the Senate rises from four seats to five. For Democrat Abdul El-Sayed to win, Black turnout in Wayne County is a key test: a strong performance in and around Detroit would give him a path to victory, while a weak result would make that path harder. Wayne County has been an area of vulnerability for him.

During the Trump era, Montanaro said, Democrats have needed 68% or more in Wayne County to win Michigan unless they can overperform in the suburbs, as Sen. Elissa Slotkin did in 2024. His historical table listed Slotkin at 63% with an 11-point Democratic win in 2024; Harris at 62% with a Democratic loss; Biden at 68% with a 12-point win and Peters at 68% with a win in 2020; Stabenow at 69% with a 15-point win in 2018; and Clinton at 66% with a 13-point Democratic loss in 2016.

Indiana and Kentucky results are expected in the 6 p.m. ET hour. Florida spans Eastern and Central time zones, although most of the state is on Eastern time, so many House results are expected during the 7 p.m. ET hour. Statewide Senate and governor contests are not expected to be called before 8 p.m. ET at the earliest.

Montanaro singled out Indiana’s 5th Congressional District, Kentucky’s 6th, and Florida’s 22nd and 27th as early indicators. The Indiana and Kentucky seats are held by Republicans and are more competitive than at the start of the cycle; a close result or one tipping toward Democrats could signal low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave. Florida’s 22nd is held by a Democrat but was redrawn to favor Republicans. Trump won Florida’s 27th by double digits, and Montanaro described the heavily Latino district as an indicator of how the key subgroup voted.

Voters ages 18 to 29 have a steep turnout drop between presidential and midterm elections. During presidential races since 1992, 43% of registered young voters cast ballots, compared with 21% in midterms, or about one in five. Montanaro called the group crucial to Democratic success and said that over the last 20 years, Democrats performed well when they won the group by more than 20 points, winning presidencies or making gains in midterms.

Montanaro identified 2022 as the only exception, though he said the strong youth margin may have helped Democrats stem what could have been a much larger Republican tide. Democrats lost nine House seats that year but gained a Senate seat. His table put Democratic margins with voters ages 18 to 29 at +11 in 2024, when Trump won the presidency; +28 in 2022, when Republicans won the House and Democrats gained a Senate seat; +25 in 2020, when Biden won the presidency; +35 in 2018, when Democrats won the House; +19 in 2016, when Trump won the presidency; +11 in 2014, when Republicans expanded the House majority and won the Senate; +23 in 2012, when Obama won reelection; +17 in 2010, when Republicans won the House; +34 in 2008, when Obama won the presidency; and +22 in 2006, when Democrats won the House.

Texas presents a separate set of benchmarks for Democrat James Talarico. Montanaro said past polling errors underestimated Republican votes, giving reason for skepticism that Talarico’s margin-of-error lead in polling averages would be enough to win. He recalled the enthusiasm for Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 challenge to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, whom Montanaro described as unpopular; Cruz still won by less than 3 percentage points. Montanaro noted that no Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994 and none has been elected to the Senate from Texas in 38 years. Trump won the state by 14 points in 2024.

The statewide comparison focuses on Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and Republican Ken Paxton. Montanaro said Paxton was unpopular, while Abbott faced a tight race but was thought to be in better shape. In 2018, Cruz won about 400,000 fewer votes than Abbott but still won the Senate race by more than 200,000 votes. Montanaro said a difference of more than 400,000 between Abbott’s and Paxton’s totals would favor Talarico. He identified Republicans and Latinos as two key groups in the state.

Talarico’s second path runs through South Texas and Latino voters. O’Rourke won 64% of Latinos statewide in 2018, and exit polls found that Latinos were 26% of the electorate. Montanaro said Talarico needed to exceed both figures to win the seat. To improve on O’Rourke’s Latino vote totals in key counties, Talarico would need Latino support benchmarks of 63% in Cameron, 69% in Hidalgo, 71% in Webb and 51% in Nueces. Additional benchmarks in the fast-growing, heavily populated Dallas suburbs were 47% in Collin, 46% in Denton and 51% in Tarrant.

Independent voters are a key swing group, but Montanaro said they have lower participation in midterms. Before the Trump era, Republicans had to win a larger share of independents to do well, he said. Mitt Romney won 55% of independents in 2012 but lost the presidential election. In Montanaro’s account of political realignment, blue-collar white voters have trended toward Trump, fewer people identify as Democrats, and better-educated white voters have shifted toward Democrats. In the decade since Trump had been on the political scene, Montanaro said Republicans had done well when they won at least 46% of independents and had lost when they did not.

Montanaro also advised watching party identification in exit polls because of the political realignment in the Trump era. He said Democrats’ share of the electorate fell to a low 31% in 2024 as the party’s base became more liberal and more disaffected with its leadership. Although Democrats were among the highest in enthusiasm levels in the latest NPR poll, Montanaro said they were likely to need a share far above 31% to do well. The party-identification series was 33% in 2022, 37% in 2020, 37% in 2018, 37% in 2016, 35% in 2014, 38% in 2012, 39% in 2010 and 39% in 2008.

The latest NPR poll found that 53% of likely voters strongly disapproved of the job Trump was doing. Montanaro said that opposition was “very likely” to unify the left in this election. He also pointed to the Michigan Senate race and Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, where he said “very progressive Democratic candidates” were trying to win in purple places. Montanaro said Democratic unity and the party’s ideological future would be a key storyline of the 2028 presidential primary and could define the American left for years to come.