Republicans brace for potential House losses as Trump disapproval hits 59%

Strategists in both parties call Democrats strong favorites to retake the majority

WASHINGTON — Republicans are entering the final stretch of the midterm campaign on defense, and much of the warning is coming from inside the party. More than a dozen Republican lawmakers, candidates and top aides described a grim mood in interviews with The Wall Street Journal. Political strategists and pollsters of both parties say Democrats are strong favorites to win back the Republican-led House, with Trump’s approval rating dropping amid deepening voter frustration over the cost of living and the war in Iran.

A new Wall Street Journal poll quantified the challenge. Some 59% of registered voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance — the highest mark of dissatisfaction for any president heading into a midterm in Journal polling, which dates to the 1990 elections — while 40% approve, up from 37% in September. By 7 percentage points, more registered voters nationally say they plan to back a Democrat for Congress rather than a Republican; the RealClearPolitics polling average had Democrats up more than 8 points on the generic congressional ballot as of Friday. The survey of 1,500 registered voters, conducted Oct. 14-22 by Democrat John Anzalone and Republican Adam Geller, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

The poll also found Republicans have lost their image as the party best able to manage the economy. In July 2025, shortly after Trump took office, more voters saw congressional Republicans as better able than Democrats to handle the economy, by 12 percentage points. The new survey puts Democrats ahead by 3.

The House map reflects the shift. Republicans’ majority stands at 219-214, with two vacancies. The Cook Political Report projects the likeliest outcome gives Democrats 227 to 240 seats in the new Congress, out of 435. Inside Elections, another nonpartisan race watcher, changed its ratings in 64 House, Senate and governor races this past week — 63 of them in Democrats’ favor and one in the GOP’s. The House Democratic campaign arm and its leadership PAC have increasingly expanded into safer GOP districts, an indicator that they are more bullish about expanding the map.

The GOP-controlled Senate remains a tossup. Republicans hold a 53-47 edge, and Democrats could claw back the majority with a good night in states including Alaska, Ohio and Texas, even as they fend off tough Republican challengers in a number of their own seats. In Alaska, Republicans saw a new glimmer of hope this week when The New York Times reported that the team of Democratic candidate Mary Peltola worked to recruit a spoiler candidate to help her party win the pivotal Senate seat; the Trump administration and the state’s Republican governor quickly launched investigations into the allegations.

One deep-red district illustrates the scramble. A poll released earlier this month showed GOP candidate Anthony Constantino down 4 percentage points in a rural New York district that Trump had carried by 21 points just two years ago — the seat of retiring GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik, long seen as a Republican stronghold. Republican operative Roger Stone raised the alarm with the White House, according to people familiar with the matter, and suggested that a visit by Vice President JD Vance could solidify the MAGA base and perhaps save the seat. Vance subsequently scheduled a trip there for the final day before the election.

Trump and his advisers have made last-minute changes to their own campaign plans. On Thursday, the president said he was canceling plans to hold rallies over the weekend; less than 24 hours later, the White House said events in Kansas and Iowa were back on. Trump, who has told supporters to vote as if he is on the ballot, has been holding rally after rally, often in places typically considered safe Republican territory, and describes the midterms — when a president’s party typically loses seats — as a comeback story, casting himself as the hero who will defy historical trends. He remains popular among the MAGA base, and many Republican candidates have not shied away from joining him on stage or embracing his agenda. “I think I’m performing well,” Trump said Thursday. “I mean the rallies are unbelievable.”

A senior White House official contended last week that Trump was as upbeat in private as he was in public, and Trump told aides their efforts were building momentum for Republicans, according to a person who heard his comments. But his mood has soured in recent days, according to associates, and his voice has grown noticeably raspy after nearly two weeks on the campaign trail. In a statement, the White House said Trump “is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress.” Asked how he would navigate a Democratic-controlled Congress, Trump told reporters earlier this week, “we’ll figure a way—look I have strong veto.”

Behind the scenes, Republicans are spending as if no seat is safe. Rep. Mike Haridopolos of Florida expressed optimism about the GOP’s chances but said colleagues are putting cash into last-minute ads even in secure-looking races; every member he talks to, he said in an interview, is “spending down to zero because you never know what’s going to happen in a cycle like this.” Steven Law, who previously ran the Senate Leadership Fund super PAC when Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky was the Republican leader, said that when donors and others ask him what to anticipate in the upcoming election, his answer is: “Brace for impact. It’s going to be a very tough election.”

In Iowa, Rep. Ashley Hinson, in a neck-and-neck race for an open Senate seat, has pushed back against Trump’s policies on the campaign trail. Asked in a recent ABC News appearance whether she agrees with Trump’s statement that the U.S. currently has “an A plus plus plus plus plus economy,” Hinson said: “Well, sure doesn’t feel like it right now.”

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana, asked about the anxiety in GOP ranks, encouraged candidates to get on the road and help fellow Republicans in 50-50 races rather than stew over the election environment. “A lot of people just get anxiety because they watch TV and they see all these doom and gloom reports, and I think some of it’s designed to suppress Republican turnout,” he said in an interview.

Some Republicans dismiss the surveys altogether. “What you’re hearing in the polls is not what we’re seeing on the ground. I really believe that,” said Rep. Mike Bost of Illinois, who recently traveled the country with party leaders. “Ever since we’ve had people living on their cellphones, the polling has been way off. It’s always showing Republicans down, and they come back.”

And in a highly competitive Arizona House race that includes parts of Phoenix and Scottsdale, GOP candidate Jay Feely has begun putting distance between himself and the president: campaign signs that once read “TRUMP ENDORSED” have been replaced with “POLICE ENDORSED.” “Anxiety is for campaigns that didn’t do the work,” said Brady Smith, a strategist for Feely. “We’ve out-hustled our opponent at every turn, and on Election Day, that’s going to show.”