Democrats narrow gaps in Republican-held races with month to midterms

Florida governor race tightens as Trump approval hits historic lows

With about four weeks remaining before the 2026 midterm elections, Democratic candidates are running more competitively than expected in Republican-leaning states from Florida to Texas, according to The Guardian’s US politics team. In Florida, Democratic Senate candidate Angie Nixon — a state legislator and Democratic Socialists of America member who upset centrist Alex Vindman in the primary — is polling closer to Republican Ashley Moody than anticipated, and the gubernatorial race has tightened between Democrat David Jolly and Republican Byron Donalds.

The Democratic overperformance in Trump-leaning territory comes as President Donald Trump faces what The Guardian described as historic lows in his approval rating. The Guardian’s newsletter, The Stakes 2026, also reported that many surveys show both major parties are deeply unpopular heading into the November vote.

Florida’s Senate contest has been reshaped by Nixon’s primary win earlier this year. Nixon joined the Democratic Socialists of America and defeated Vindman — a centrist with national name recognition — in a result that registered as a shock in Florida politics, according to the Guardian. Nixon is polling behind her Republican opponent, Ashley Moody, but the race is much closer than anyone following Florida politics expected.

Senator Bernie Sanders has newly poured millions of dollars from his campaign funds into the state, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaigned with Nixon in Florida last month.

Florida’s gubernatorial race has shifted as well. Donalds had appeared a strong favorite just weeks earlier, the Guardian reported. Democratic challenger David Jolly is now running neck-and-neck with him.

The pattern extends beyond Florida. In Kansas, a Democratic Senate candidate has newly taken the edge, according to the Guardian. In Iowa, both the governor’s seat and congressional districts could flip to Democrats. In Texas, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico has drawn national attention, and the party’s gubernatorial hopeful, Gina Hinojosa, has also turned heads in the past month.

The Guardian noted that Republican candidate records have become a liability in GOP-leaning states. In Kansas, Senator Roger Marshall — a doctor who has sued thousands of patients — is running for Senate. In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has a long record of personal and financial scandal, remains the Republican Senate candidate.

The newsletter reported that reporters heard voter frustration at gas stations, schools and rallies across the country. “People are fed up with the status quo and looking for a way out,” the Guardian wrote, adding that in Kansas that included voters prepared to back a party that has not won the seat in almost a hundred years.

The Guardian also flagged a longer-term question both parties face: midterm elections almost always serve as a check on the sitting White House, but neither major party has historically converted that momentum into a sustained majority. Both parties are now leaning on specific candidates with tailored messages — whether by inviting former President Barack Obama to rally supporters or by avoiding bringing former Vice President Kamala Harris to certain events.

Several high-profile Republican candidates are now speaking in direct opposition to Trump on at least some issues. Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers said in his latest campaign advertisement: “Here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy. We need to end this tariff war now.”

The Guardian also pointed to Republican surprises in states that have leaned Democratic. In Minnesota, Democratic Senate candidate Peggy Flanagan has held a steady lead, but Republican Michelle Tafoya — a former sports broadcaster positioning herself as a conservative with some asterisks, including support for some abortion rights and criticism of Trump’s actions in the Iran war — has made gains. National Republicans have not invested in her race, according to the Guardian.

Minnesota has seen deep political turmoil over the past several years, from federal immigration enforcement raids that killed two American citizens to the murder of a beloved state leader. The Trump administration has used a recent statewide fraud investigation to pressure the state, the newsletter reported.

With just under four weeks remaining until Election Day, the Guardian wrote, it remains to be seen whether the Democratic advantage holds and how decisive a victory the party will have if it does.