Working-class white voters cool on Republicans, WSJ poll finds

GOP lead among working-class whites falls from 30-plus in 2024 to 19

A Wall Street Journal poll finds that working-class white voters — the main pillar of President Trump’s electoral coalition — have shifted away from Republicans, with half saying Trump’s economic policies made the economy worse. The shift, documented in the Journal’s latest survey, is a fresh development rather than a reversion to a prior political status, according to the newspaper’s analysis, and represents a potential crack in the party’s foundation.

Working-class white voters have been the main pillar of President Trump’s electoral coalition. Trump carried them by more than 30 points in 2024 and by 25 points in 2020, and they have been treated as the most durable element of the modern Republican coalition. The latest Journal findings suggest that durability is now in question.

The specifics of the cooling are sharp. Among working-class white voters — those without a four-year college degree — half say Trump’s economic policies have made the economy worse, the Journal reported, while 28% say they have made it better. The Republican advantage in the congressional vote among this group has dropped to 19 points, down from the more-than-30-point margin Trump carried in 2024.

The Journal characterized the shift as a new development rather than a reversion to a prior political status — and as a potential crack in the party’s foundation.

The shift could matter most in the upper Midwest. Iowa, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin all rank above the national average for the share of residents who are white and below the national average for the share with a bachelor’s degree. Elections in many Midwest states have become competitive this year, the Journal reported, and the working-class cooling helps explain why.

A similar movement has shown up among younger voters, though the Journal frames it as more familiar. Trump lost voters under 30 by 4 percentage points in 2024; the latest Journal poll finds those voters now say they will vote for a Democrat over a Republican for Congress by 20 points. But the newspaper’s analysis treats the GOP’s gains among younger voters as transitory, while the working-class shift looks like something newer.

For Democrats, the open question is durability. With the party’s lead among college-educated voters already growing, even a small, long-term improvement among non-college white voters could put some hard-to-win states in play beyond this year’s midterms, the Journal reported.

The findings land as both parties enter the closing weeks of the midterm campaign. President Trump is scheduled to make two stops for midterm rallies on Wednesday, the Journal reported. At 4 p.m. ET he will deliver remarks at Laughlin Bullhead International Airport in Bullhead City, Ariz., and at 8:15 p.m. he will hold a rally at Majestic Valley Arena in Kalispell, Mont. The September consumer-price index is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, according to the newsletter.

The same edition of the newsletter reported other developments.

Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff said he has zero interest in running for the presidency in 2028 and is focused on getting re-elected to a six-year Senate term, the Journal reported.

Kimberly Guilfoyle resigned Tuesday as U.S. ambassador to Greece after being asked to do so, the Journal reported. Working the phones from Athens, she dialed up administration officials and people close to President Trump — often in the early hours in Athens — to play down Journal reporting that suggested she was using her position for personal gain. Guilfoyle was eager to identify who was leaking the stories that made her the subject of mockery on late-night talk shows, accusing embassy personnel and her security team, according to people familiar with the matter.

New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte, first elected in 2024, has maintained a steady lead in polls over her Democratic opponent, Cinde Warmington, the Journal reported. Ayotte has played up the state’s low-tax status within New England and quality-of-life benefits while steering clear of areas where she might end up at odds with the White House.

White House press secretary Katie Zacharia had a rocky debut, the Journal reported. She read directly from a list of Trump’s accomplishments — her voice at times halting — and took just three questions. Some administration officials, watching from their desks, picked up on nervousness in Zacharia’s voice and wondered why Trump had pushed her in front of the cameras so quickly instead of easing her into the job.