Republican committees and MAGA Inc. hold cash advantage over Democrats
President Trump is launching a multi-state rally blitz in Republican-leaning areas to turn out low-propensity voters ahead of the November midterm elections, banking on the same turnout operation that returned him to the White House to spare his party from historical headwinds.
Republicans face one of the most difficult political environments for an incumbent party in recent memory, according to strategists and advisers. Higher prices, an ongoing war with Iran and the lowest approval rating of any president heading into a midterm election in decades have left the party privately and publicly sounding alarms, even as Trump’s team projects confidence in its ground game.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report this week shifted three Senate races toward Democrats, reclassifying Kansas as a “tossup,” New Hampshire as “lean Democrat” and North Carolina as “likely Democrat.” The forecaster shifted 18 House races toward Democrats as well.
“Could this be a wave that takes the House, or a tsunami that takes the Senate, or an asteroid that just cleans out the party?” Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist and former Trump appointee, asked in an interview. “We will see, but the polling and the feelings — nothing is good right now. Nothing is going in our direction.”
Laura Loomer, whom The Wall Street Journal describes as a far-right activist and who has become an unconventional adviser to President Trump, joined him aboard Air Force One last week on a flight to a rally in Mobile, Alabama. Loomer told the Journal she urged him to attack “jihadist candidates” but warned that the 2024 playbook may not translate to this year’s midterms. “A lot of these candidates are not very dynamic people, and the president’s rallies are a last-ditch effort to bring them across the finish line,” she said. “It’s just very difficult to inspire people to get out to vote when you have a lot of do-nothing candidates who are not necessarily as dynamic as the president.” Trump, she said, was “positive” but “realistic” about the GOP’s prospects.
According to senior White House officials, Trump has received an unadulterated view of the state of the race, and some top Republicans are working to ensure the president understands the situation on the ground.
Trump’s political advisers are banking on a retooled turnout operation built around rallies in red areas, targeted digital ads, mailers and phone calls. People close to the campaign strategy say polls showing Democrats with significant advantages miss the low-propensity voters they are trying to reach, and that Trump believes he may be able to defy expectations, as he has in previous elections.
The president’s advisers still see a narrow path to keeping a Republican majority in the Senate and even narrowly holding the House by replicating elements of his successful 2024 presidential campaign — frequent rallies and the push to turn out low-propensity voters, according to people familiar with the strategy.
The president has privately expressed frustration that two of his top political advisers, Chris LaCivita and James Blair, recently traveled to Republika Srpska — a self-governing entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina — during the thick of the U.S. campaign, according to people familiar with the matter. The pair were paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for election work for the pro-Russian government there, the New York Times reported.
Before a White House meeting last week with top technology executives, Trump pulled House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) aside for an impromptu Oval Office conversation, according to people familiar with the meeting. Johnson delivered what one person present described as “a clinical analysis” of the midterms, going race-by-race through the tossup contests likely to determine control of Congress. Johnson later told Fox News that if Republicans lost their House majority, he might return to Louisiana and “start a lawn business.”
Trump drew scrutiny during a Nebraska rally this week for suggesting Los Angeles and San Diego could be attacked by Iran. He told the audience the Iran conflict was “a small price to pay” for keeping the U.S. and the world safe, adding: “They could take out a city. Let ‘em take out Los Angeles, let ‘em take out San Diego.” The president later walked back the remarks.
Davis Ingle, a White House spokesman, said in a statement that “President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress.”
Republicans hold a substantial financial advantage heading into the final month: the RNC and its two congressional committees reported more than $233 million in cash at the end of August, and the Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. super PAC reported nearly $416 million at the same time. The Democratic National Committee and the party’s House and Senate committees reported more than $130 million in cash on hand, with the DNC carrying $17.6 million in debt.
Next week, Trump plans to rally in Alaska, which will help determine Senate control, and is expected to make a swing through Montana and Arizona. Officials said his visits are being supplemented by local media interviews so he can tout his administration’s accomplishments and deliver a get-out-the-vote message. Central to his closing argument is that he himself is on the ballot. “I just want you to go out and pretend I’m on the ticket, because essentially I am,” Trump told voters in North Carolina last month. The president has acknowledged the historical headwinds facing the GOP, telling supporters, “When I’m not on the ballot we don’t do well.”
Marc Short, who was chief of staff to former Vice President Mike Pence, said the challenge Trump faces in rallying voters is that many Republicans feel disaffected. “They felt when they were voting for Trump in ‘24 they were going to get similar policies to the first Trump administration,” Short said. “It’s been such a departure from what Donald Trump did in his first term, I think it’s dissuaded a lot of people to actually turn out and vote.”
In recent weeks, Republicans have grown increasingly concerned about Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s ability to hold his Senate race, with some saying it was possible Republicans would hold their Senate seat in Maine, a blue state, while losing Texas, a red one. The president told reporters he did not regret endorsing Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn (R., Texas) in the GOP primary, describing Paxton as “the best attorney general of the whole country,” and Republicans have privately said Trump will shoulder the blame if Paxton loses.
Some on Trump’s political team have countered that the environment may not be as dire for Republicans as polling indicates, pointing to early voting results in Ohio and Florida that they say are trending in the GOP’s direction, and to a major nonresponse bias among non-college-educated, rural white Republicans in red Midwestern states.
“President Trump is a turnout machine for low-propensity voters,” said Natalie Baldassarre, the RNC’s national press secretary. “He’s done it three times before, and his barnstorming of the country in battleground races and beyond is absolutely energizing our base and driving our voters to the polls.” For Trump, the rallies have also served as a farewell tour. At the Mobile rally, the site of a large 2015 event, Trump told attendees: “I’m here really because, you know, sometimes, even though you don’t have to come here, you got to pay respect to the people that have loved you right from the beginning.”