Polls show Democratic edge, but redistricting and scandals complicate contests
Polls show Democrats with a strong national edge heading into November’s midterm elections, and in recent days election prognosticators have shifted even more races in the party’s favor, according to a Guardian explainer published this week. But ten lower-profile contests outside the marquee races could still determine how much ground Republicans lose, with some of those races carrying openings for Republicans to pick off incumbent Democrats or win over voters for open seats. Republicans are pouring money into these places in hopes of minimizing losses, and mid-decade redistricting in red states has reshaped several House districts, opening new paths for GOP challengers.
Could Democrats beat the odds and win in Kansas, a state that has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1932? It’s possible — both because of the strength of Democratic candidate and pastor Adam Hamilton, and a medical billing scandal for Republican incumbent Roger Marshall. A New York Times investigation in September showed that Marshall had sued more than 700 patients of his OB-GYN practice for unpaid bills, resulting in arrests for 81 of them who missed court dates. Hamilton, the founder of the largest Methodist congregation in the United States, won a crowded Democratic primary earlier this year.
In New Hampshire, Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement has created an open race that the Cook Political Report considers a tossup despite the expected blue wave. Democrats have the edge in this race, but New Hampshire voters are known to split tickets: the state’s governor is a Republican and Republicans control both chambers of the legislature, while both US senators are currently Democrats. Republican John Sununu — whose father and brother both served as governor, and who held a Senate seat himself until losing to Shaheen in 2008 — is trying to reclaim his former position. His opponent, US Representative Chris Pappas, has served in Congress since 2019 and was the first openly gay man to represent New Hampshire in Congress.
Minnesota presents a closer-than-expected race after Democratic Senator Tina Smith’s retirement. Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan, the Democratic nominee, faces conservative media darling Michele Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter who has demonstrated strong fundraising and signaled support for some level of abortion access. The state typically elects Democrats, but Flanagan, a progressive, could suffer because of fraud scandals in state public services under Governor Tim Walz’s administration.
In the Nevada governor’s race, Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford is challenging incumbent Republican Governor Joe Lombardo, the former Clark County sheriff who beat a Democratic incumbent in 2022. Democrats already control both chambers of the state legislature, meaning a Ford victory would deliver a Democratic governing trifecta.
In the House, redistricting has reshaped several competitive districts. In a right-leaning Gulf Coast Florida district, Democrats are targeting Republican incumbent Anna Paulina Luna. Election prognosticators have shifted the race from a likely Luna win to one that merely leans her way. Democratic challenger Leela Gray, a retired army brigadier general, has attracted increased fundraising support, though Florida Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting made the district somewhat redder.
In Alabama, Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures is fighting to hold a district where mid-decade redistricting, which the Guardian reported was enabled by the US Supreme Court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act, made the territory more favorable to Republicans and carved out his hometown of Mobile. Republican Rhett Marques holds a strong edge on paper in the redrawn district, which Figures first won in 2024 as a newly drawn majority-Black seat.
In a southern New Mexico district where Democratic incumbent Gabe Vasquez won in 2024 despite Donald Trump narrowly carrying the area, the race remains evenly divided. Republicans are preparing to spend millions of dollars on advertising to support former police officer Greg Cunningham, the Republican challenger. Vasquez first captured the seat in 2022 by defeating the Republican incumbent.
In a south Texas borderland district, Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez is fending off Trump-endorsed challenger Eric Flores, a veteran and former federal prosecutor. Texas Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting redrew the district into a tougher configuration for Gonzalez, who had already faced competitive races in the previous iteration of the seat.
Two other House contests feature incumbents facing unexpected headwinds. In a southeastern Wisconsin district, Republican incumbent Bryan Steil — who has overperformed in previous cycles — faces a closer race this time, with the national environment potentially helping Democratic challenger Mitchell Berman, a registered nurse, flip the seat. In a New Jersey district where voters went for Joe Biden in 2020 and Donald Trump in 2024, Democratic challenger Rebecca Bennett, a former US Navy helicopter pilot, should have a strong chance to unseat Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. — not simply because the area is a swing district. Kean Jr. was absent from Congress for months without explanation before disclosing he was being treated for depression.