Guardian columnist says midterm losses leave Trump weaker abroad

Tisdall: Netanyahu could egg Trump on Iran while Netanyahu stays in power

Guardian foreign affairs commentator Simon Tisdall wrote in a Nov. 8, 2026 opinion column that the Democratic midterm victories left President Donald Trump weaker at home and abroad. The column examined the tension between Democratic control of Congress and Trump’s retained power over U.S. defense and foreign policy, then assessed the consequences for Iran, Ukraine, Israel and Europe.

Tisdall said Trump “retains huge latitude in directing US defence and foreign policy independently of Congress.” He wrote that after Democrats take charge of both chambers in January, Trump and senior officials are “certain to face intense scrutiny over executive actions, budgets, and alleged corruption and abuses of power.” He identified Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as a possible early political casualty while suggesting he would probably escape public punishment. If Trump is impeached again, as some Democrats demand, Tisdall wrote, the president would have less time to focus on his international legacy.

The column opens with a photograph of Trump in the Oval Office in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 5, 2026, credited to Alex Brandon/AP. It also includes a photograph of Trump with Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, on Aug. 15, 2025, credited to Kevin Lamarque/Reuters.

Tisdall called the result “an unmistakably personal repudiation” and said the “aura of invincibility” surrounding Trump since 2024 had been “blown away at last.” He said Trump had ignored his “rock-bottom approval ratings” when he asked voters to pretend he was on the ballot, and that they “obliged in huge numbers.” Tisdall argued that people in many countries celebrated the outcome as a global democratic repudiation of Trump and far-right authoritarianism, while warning that Trump remained dangerous. He compared the voters’ rallying cry of democratic defiance to the American Revolution 250 years ago.

On Iran, Tisdall wrote that the U.S. result raised hopes, “perhaps misplaced,” that Trump’s war of choice against what he called Tehran’s oppressive regime might soon cease. He warned that Iranian celebrations could prove premature. Tisdall said Trump’s diminished lame-duck status and frustration that he was no longer the center of attention could aggravate old tensions and escalate conflicts. He wrote: “For all his talk of deal-making, he rarely compromises. If thwarted, he gets angry, doubles down, lashes out.”

Tisdall said Benjamin Netanyahu could egg Trump on to resume and expand the Iran war “as long as he’s in power.” Trump could also defy “chastened Republicans such as the vice-president, JD Vance,” and continue the war “not least to avenge the Tehran-engineered Middle East oil shock that so alienated voters,” Tisdall wrote. He described the decades-long Iran nuclear standoff as a key legacy issue for Trump, whom he said was increasingly obsessed with his place in history.

Another legacy issue, Tisdall wrote, was Russia. He said Trump had gone to “embarrassing lengths” to reward Vladimir Putin and punish Ukraine for being invaded. Trump regarded the conflict as an obstacle to normalized ties with Moscow and lucrative bilateral energy, investment and trade deals, Tisdall wrote, while clinging to a vague idea of performing a “reverse Nixon” by befriending Russia to strategically disadvantage China. Trump also wanted a Nobel peace prize, Tisdall wrote, but ending the war for the sake of Ukraine’s besieged people was not Trump’s motivation. Tisdall wrote that Trump “cares little for the thousands of civilians killed, maimed or traumatised by Russian bombs.”

Tisdall’s assessment of Russia was paradoxical: Trump’s weakness could hasten a ceasefire. He wrote that Putin, beset by battlefield failures and deepening economic problems, had his best chance of a face-saving outcome if he cut a deal while Trump remained in office. Tisdall called this “grave danger for Ukraine and its allies.” He warned that Trump’s negotiators might intensify their push for territorial and other concessions from Kyiv while disregarding Ukraine’s sovereign rights and Europe’s wider security. To force Kyiv’s capitulation on Trump’s terms, Tisdall said Trump might double down on withholding weapons and intelligence support and refusing credible security guarantees.

In Israel, Tisdall wrote that many among the majority who voted for change last week “will welcome” the humbling of “the foremost supporter of Benjamin Netanyahu’s as-yet-unvanquished extremist coalition.” He predicted that any new Israeli government “is likely to continue to deny basic Palestinian rights in Gaza and the West Bank, more or less supported by Washington.”

Ukrainians voiced optimism that a Democratic-controlled Congress “will curb” what Tisdall called the “sickening appeasement” of Vladimir Putin’s Russia. In Europe, the result brought “a sense of relief” and hope that toxic transatlantic relations could be drained of “Maga poison,” he wrote. Tisdall placed the U.S. result after progressive election victories in Hungary, Serbia and Brazil, with Spain next and France in 2027. He said the sequence had reinvigorated global democracy and made further historic defeats of far-right, ultra-nationalist populists who believed Trump and Maga were invincible a possibility.

Tisdall forecast that most U.S. policies will not shift significantly between now and 2028. Trump could make nice with Europe and Canada by de-escalating tariff wars. Or, Tisdall wrote, Trump could enact previous threats to abandon NATO and the common defense of Europe, which he described as another “legacy” issue.

Tisdall also identified a risk that Trump could “foist Venezuela-style regime change on Cuba” and said China’s Xi Jinping would continue to “run rings around him.” He said urgently needed agreements to halt nuclear weapons proliferation were nowhere in sight, nor was there an end to “White House climate emergency denial.” On the other hand, once Democrats held the purse strings, they “could and should move swiftly to fully restore the overseas aid budget,” Tisdall wrote.

Tisdall asked whether Trump could redeem himself after an unambiguous national vote of no confidence and a popular reassertion of American democracy. He quoted the rapper Ice T: “Redemption just means you just make a change in your life and you try to do right, versus what you were doing, which was wrong.” Tisdall called such late-stage metamorphosis “improbable,” describing the 80-year-old president as “stuck in his ways,” “learning nothing, never listening” and “too far gone to change.” He forecast “two more years of presidential overreach, interference in other countries’ affairs, egotistical foreign policy posturing, damaging economic rows and overseas military adventurism.”