Average US heating bills projected to rise more than 7% this winter

Heating-oil households could see winter costs jump as much as 70%

Households across the United States are likely to pay more to stay warm this winter, with average heating costs projected to climb more than 7% nationwide, according to a new report from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association.

The association, which represents state officials seeking federal funding, warns that disruptions stemming from the war with Iran are pushing heating costs higher amid what it calls a growing affordability crisis, as millions of families already struggle to pay utility bills.

Households relying on heating oil face the biggest increases. Nearly 5 million households use the fuel, particularly in the Northeast and Alaska, and their seasonal costs could jump as much as 70%, to approximately $2,977.

The Northeast is expected to see average heating bills rise 16.9%, or $221, from $1,311 last winter to $1,532 this winter. The region has some of the nation’s highest electricity prices and the greatest concentration of heating oil customers.

“For higher-income households, these increases may be an inconvenience. For low- and middle-income families, they can be devastating,” said Mark Wolfe, the association’s executive director, in a statement. “Families are already struggling with rising costs for food, housing and other necessities. Adding hundreds or even thousands of dollars to their winter heating bills will push many of them further into debt.”

Global fuel supply disruptions are adding to the pressure. Supplies have tightened as refineries in the Middle East and Russia shut down or cut production amid the US-Israel war with Iran and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, according to the report.

Wolfe wrote last month that the Iran war is deepening the country’s energy crisis, describing heating oil as “the canary in the coalmine” for the broader affordability crisis. “The situation in the strait of Hormuz remains highly volatile, and continued uncertainty about global oil supplies makes it difficult to predict where prices will go,” he said. “For planning purposes, we believe it is prudent to assume that heating oil prices will remain elevated throughout the winter heating season.”

Households that heat with electricity or propane are also expected to pay more. Electric heating costs could increase about 6%, to $1,215, while propane bills are projected to rise roughly 5%, to an average of $1,350.

The projected increases come as roughly one in six US households are behind on utility payments, collectively owing about $23 billion, according to the association.

The warning follows a record-hot summer that saw widespread financial hardship and electricity shutoffs. In July, the hottest month ever recorded in the United States, utilities disconnected power to 173,598 households across 10 states despite dangerous temperatures.

With winter bills expected to climb, the association is urging Congress to provide relief. “Energy is not a luxury. Families need to be able to heat their homes without worrying about whether they can afford food, medicine or rent,” Wolfe said. “Congress has an opportunity to provide immediate relief before these higher winter bills arrive.”