Colom outworked Hyde-Smith and flipped seven Mississippi counties

Colom overperformed other Mississippi Democrats by more than 25,000 votes

Scott Colom’s upset victory over Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi will be studied by politicians in both parties for years, Geoff Pender wrote in an analysis published Nov. 13, 2026 by News From The States. Pender predicted the race will become “a blueprint, a road map for Democrats and a bogeyman of what not to do for Republicans.”

The first thing Colom got right, Pender wrote, was effort. Colom crisscrossed the state nonstop and met voters where they were, while Hyde-Smith “hardly campaigned, at least until the homestretch.” Pender wrote that listening to voters directly is “becoming more and more rare, in the age of big-money campaigns.”

Colom also held to one message. “It’s affordability, stupid,” Pender wrote, adding that Colom expanded his messaging here and there but “kept the main thing the main thing.”

Money was tighter. Colom had little to start with, and national Democratic interests had, as Pender put it, “written Mississippi off as too Republican to bother with.” What resources Colom secured early, he deployed wisely, Pender wrote. His ads, including one built around “don’t pick another protein, pick another senator,” drew national attention and campaign donations. That track record helped persuade national Democrats to put money into the campaign — late in the game, Pender wrote, but Colom was ready and seized on it.

Colom also built on organizing that already existed in Mississippi rather than trying to reinvent it, uniting groups that had worked on turnout for decades. If there was infighting inside the coalition, Pender wrote, it did not spill into public view or slow the campaign.

Colom appeared to keep his own counsel on party strategy. Pender wrote that Colom read the political environment correctly, judged that Americans including Mississippians wanted change from the Republican Party led by President Donald Trump, and embraced his party’s support. Colom reportedly shrugged off advice not to have former Vice President Kamala Harris campaign for him, and he appeared with a range of national party leaders past and present, Pender wrote.

Pender also argued that Colom drew a sizeable number of crossover votes. While he said the exact number is hard to pin down, Pender wrote that Colom overperformed other Democratic candidates by more than 25,000 votes — a margin he said could not be explained by turning out Democrats alone. Colom campaigned in Republican strongholds instead of writing them off, including glad-handing with people waiting in line for a Trump rally in Corinth, Pender wrote. Hyde-Smith, he noted, did not.

The returns showed the reach of that strategy. Colom flipped seven counties from Republican to Democratic, Pender wrote. DeSoto County, which Hyde-Smith had previously won by 16 points, shifted by well over 20 points and went to Colom. Colom also denied Hyde-Smith a big margin on the Gulf Coast, won many suburbs including Madison County and DeSoto, performed well in college counties of Lafayette, Forrest and Oktibbeha, held his own in many rural Republican areas, and increased turnout in the Delta and other rural Democratic areas.

Looking ahead, Pender wrote that Republicans are likely to do a good bit of fingerpointing now — the kind of fingerpointing Mississippi Democrats have played after, or even during, past elections, even ones where they lost by fairly narrow margins — and that most of their fingers could point to Trump. He also wrote that the race appears to have strengthened infrastructure for the Mississippi Democratic Party and drawn national attention and resources the state’s Democrats have long said were missing. Whether that lasts, Pender concluded, is an open question — but a Democratic U.S. senator from Mississippi, and a campaign blueprint that worked in the Deep South, will help.