Mike. The actuarial report has said the same thing every year since 1994. In 2032, twenty-two percent of every Social Security check disappears. You have known for thirty years. You have done nothing. The hedge fund manager who pays payroll tax on 3.7% of his income is not the victim here. The eighty-one-year-old widow in Pocatello who pays the rent on her check is. The cliff is a hostage you have held for thirty years.
The 2032 insolvency date has been on the actuarial books for three decades. The automatic 22% benefit cut has been forecast in every trustees report since the George W. Bush administration. The shortfall exceeds $450 billion in 2033.
The 12.4% Social Security tax — split between workers and employers — stops collecting once wages hit $184,500. A janitor making $50,000 pays on every dollar. A hedge fund manager making $5 million pays on 3.7% of income. That cap is the most regressive feature of the federal tax code, and it is the reason the program’s funding math does not balance.
The trust fund ran surpluses for decades. The rest of government borrowed every dollar and left IOUs. The shortfall is the principal the rest of government spent, plus the interest Washington now owes itself. Calling that a “Social Security crisis” is the largest accounting sleight of hand in the federal budget.
Sen. Tim Kaine has two bipartisan bills gathering dust. Sens. Bernie Moreno and Elizabeth Warren are sketching a proposal to scrap the payroll tax cap but have not released text. Reps. Tom Cole and Tom Suozzi want a commission to study a problem the trustees have been studying for thirty years. Sen. Ron Wyden, the top Finance Committee Democrat, talks about taxing billionaires’ unrealized capital gains. Sen. Mike Crapo, the Finance chairman, says he has not “gone back and evaluated” whether his past support for Social Security tax increases still applies. The White House promises “zero reductions to Social Security payments” while offering no plan to pay for that promise. The conservative intellectual apparatus, which spent the Bush years pushing retirement age increases and partial privatization, has gone silent. The only urgency in Washington is the urgency to appear urgent.
Mike, hear what you have done.
The eighty-one-year-old widow in Pocatello who depends on her check to pay for the medication that keeps her heart beating — her name is not in your committee report. Her name is not in your press releases. Her name is in the pharmacy’s database, and the pharmacy is going to start asking her to choose between the medication and the rent. In 2032, if you and your colleagues do nothing, her check arrives twenty-two percent smaller. Twenty-two percent. That is not an abstraction. That is the inhaler she cannot afford, the heating oil she cannot buy in February, the choice between eating and the blood pressure pill that prevents the stroke.
Elizabeth, hear what you have done. You have said the right word — “fair” — about scrapping the cap. But you have not released text. You have held a press conference. You have not filed a bill. The hedge fund manager is not fooled by your press conference. The widow is not saved by your press conference. Your mouth says fair. Your silence says the hedge fund’s tax break is worth more than her medication.
Tim and Tom and Tom and Jim and Ron and Bernie — hear what you have done. You have all been in the room. You have all known. You have all chosen the commission, the board, the advisory panel, the discussion, the conversation, the study. You have all chosen every instrument except the one that works: a vote. The cowardice is bipartisan, but it is not symmetrical. At least some of you are willing to say the answer out loud. Wyden talks about taxing billionaires’ unrealized capital gains. Martin O’Malley, who ran Social Security under Biden, said it plainly: the problem can only be solved by scrapping the cap. The public is ahead of you on this one. The public has been ahead of you for thirty years. You are not leading. You are being dragged.
The others are not even pretending. The White House promises zero reductions and offers no plan. Crapo, who once backed Social Security tax increases and benefit reductions, now says he has not “gone back and evaluated” whether those positions still apply. The conservative apparatus has gone silent. They do not know what they want. They just do not want to be seen wanting anything.
I have watched the actuarial reports pile up on your desk, Mike. I have watched the bipartisan hand-wringing. I have watched the commission after commission. I have watched the press conferences and the “starting discussions” and the “we can’t let it hit the wall.” I have watched the hedge fund donations land in your campaign account. I see what you have done.
The cowardice has a taste, Mike. A metallic taste under your tongue at 5 AM when you wake and remember what the trustees’ report said and what you have done about it. A weight behind your sternum that does not lift. A dryness at the back of your throat when the elderly couple at the airport gate asks you about their benefits and you smile and say you are “starting discussions.” You are not starting discussions. You are performing discussions. The commission you and Tom Suozzi want is a permission slip to do nothing while the cliff gets closer.
You sleep, Mike. The widow does not sleep. You eat at the restaurant on Capitol Hill. The widow eats the generic medication. Your daughter goes to college on the fund manager’s contributions. The widow’s grandson works the night shift at the warehouse because his grandmother’s check does not cover the rent. You have made this. You have chosen this. Year after year, you have chosen this.
The math gets worse every year you have waited. Tax or spending changes that could have closed the gap five years ago are no longer big enough. The hole exceeds $450 billion in 2033. You have made the inevitable adjustment more painful by refusing to make any adjustment at all. The 1983 commission worked because lawmakers acted in the face of a deadline, not because they organized another hearing about the deadline. The hole was smaller then. The politics were easier then. You have made both worse by waiting.
The cliff is not a natural disaster. It is a hostage. Washington built the wall, named the date, and now wants credit for tearing it down before anyone notices who laid the bricks. The IOUs are sitting in a drawer in the Treasury. Refuse to honor them, and the twenty-two percent cut kicks in. Honor them out of general revenue, and the twenty-two percent cut vanishes. Raise the payroll tax cap on income above $184,500, and the twenty-two percent cut vanishes. You have known this for thirty years. You have done none of it.
Every senator who votes against scrapping the cap should have to explain to the retirees in their state why a hedge fund manager’s payroll tax break is worth more than their Social Security check.
“Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.” — Matthew 25:40
The widow’s check is not a fiscal abstraction. It is the body of an eighty-one-year-old woman in Idaho who paid into the system every working day of her life. The committee chair’s cowardice is not a policy debate. It is the decision, renewed every year for thirty years, to let her fall. The Christ on the cross is watching the senator who chairs the committee that could end it.