Neither side can achieve decisive advantage, analysts say
The United States and Iran are locked in an escalating conflict that has widened to include Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, with both sides showing a willingness to fight but unable to achieve a decisive military advantage, analysts said Friday.
The conflict widened this week after Iranian-allied Houthi militants in Yemen began striking ships transiting the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a key Red Sea chokepoint, helping drive oil prices above $100 a barrel for the first time in two months. The Houthi militia said it was launching a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia and threatened shipping in the waterway; international maritime officials confirmed that at least one vessel was struck.
The U.S., meanwhile, has escalated its bombing campaign in Iran in recent days, striking throughout the country during the most intense period of fighting since President Trump and Israel began bombing Iran in late February. Trump and other administration leaders have threatened to ratchet up further, including by striking a suspected Iranian nuclear facility at Pickaxe Mountain or attacking Iran’s national infrastructure such as power plants.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters Thursday at a summit in Manila that “the price will continue to get higher every single night until they come to their senses,” citing Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s description of Tehran’s approach as “an eye for an eye.” Rubio said Trump’s policy is “a head for an eye” and added that the president would decide whether to escalate further in the coming days.
The challenge facing both Washington and Tehran is that neither government is capable of achieving a decisive advantage over the other, according to military analysts. The stalemate heightens the risk that the U.S. and Iran could be drawn into further months of war as both sides attempt to generate leverage.
“There is an escalatory dynamic now,” said Alan Eyre, a former senior U.S. diplomat who participated in negotiations with Iran. “I don’t think the United States administration really has a clear strategic concept of what it is trying to do.”
Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow specializing in Iran at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said none of Trump’s military options would fundamentally change the situation. “I see it as both sides reaching the limits of what military means can achieve,” he said.
The Houthis, who control a large part of Yemen including the capital San’a, are an important ally for Tehran, though they have remained largely on the sidelines of the current conflict until now. The group receives weapons and training from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps but is seen as operating with a larger degree of independence from Tehran compared with Iran-backed militants in Iraq or Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
Byran Clark, a former senior U.S. Navy official and now a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said Iran gained an escalation advantage with the Houthi action. “I don’t think they have escalation dominance because the U.S. can still choose to attack civilian targets and adopt a total-war approach,” he said.
The Houthis’ involvement expands an already complex problem for the U.S. military, which faced difficulties during weeks of bombing against the militia group last year in a campaign called Operation Rough Rider. During that operation, the Houthis downed more than a half-dozen U.S. Reaper drones and launched a missile attack on the USS Harry S. Truman, forcing the carrier to make a hard turn that sent an F/A-18 jet fighter rolling into the Red Sea.
The surge in oil prices showed how the Houthis’ action could counter Trump’s ability to lower prices by talking about the potential for de-escalation, a practice known as “jawboning.” Oil prices have repeatedly dipped during the nearly five months of the conflict after Trump has spoken publicly about the possibility of ending the war.
Erik Meyersson, the chief emerging markets strategist at the Swedish bank SEB, said expanding the conflict to the Houthis could be a “counter-jawboning strategy.” He said it does not require sustained strikes but rather occasional actions that “squeeze that button” and counter any market optimism from de-escalation rhetoric.
The U.S. is also applying economic pressure on Iran, reimposing a naval blockade of Iran’s ports after Trump ejected earlier in July from a memorandum of understanding designed to end the conflict. The current standoff again sets up a test of wills in which both sides must gauge how much economic pain they are willing to endure.
The Iranian regime has shown an ability to resist years of sanctions and other U.S. efforts to squeeze it economically. The regime is also less susceptible to domestic political pressure, having demonstrated a willingness to kill its own citizens to remain in power, as it did during protests in January.
“The Iranian regime knows how to take a punch,” Eyre said.