Estonian officials urge calm, see no signs of Russian attack buildup

Estonia hardens defenses, shifts doctrine to hold territory

Estonian officials said they see no signs that Russia is preparing to send tanks and troops across the border, despite warnings from other NATO countries that Russia could attack the alliance. They said Russian forces remain too bogged down in Ukraine to open another front.

“We need to watch carefully, must be ready for any kind…of real provocations,” Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in an interview. “But full-scale military aggression against NATO? The figures don’t fit.”

John Ratcliffe, director of the Central Intelligence Agency, made a surprise visit to Moscow last month to warn the Kremlin against an attack on NATO, The Wall Street Journal reported. An Estonian security official said Estonia had sought information from allies including Poland and Lithuania, whose officials were speaking more urgently about the Russian threat, but had received nothing that changed its assessment.

Estonian officials said Russia was threatening NATO countries with explosive-laden drones, committing sabotage and conducting a longstanding misinformation campaign across Europe. Tsahkna attributed the activity to President Vladimir Putin, saying, “He’s playing with our fear, organizing different attacks, sabotage, provocations.”

German officials last week blamed Moscow for a plot weeks earlier to send explosive drones to an airport in Leipzig, eastern Germany. The Journal described the alleged plot as one of the most serious incidents in a NATO country since the start of the war. Moscow has denied involvement in sabotage attacks in Europe.

NATO and European Union leaders met last Wednesday to discuss how to respond to what officials described as increasingly intense gray-zone attacks. Tsahkna and other European officials have called for stepped-up pressure on Moscow and greater support for Kyiv.

Estonian officials are also investigating whether Russia-linked sabotage was behind an arson attack on a local defense company last month. The investigation has not established that Russia was responsible.

Ukrainian drones headed for targets inside Russia are sometimes diverted by jammers or GPS spoofing, and one struck an Estonian power station earlier this year. Tsahkna said that although the drone was Ukrainian, the incident resulted from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and should lead Europe to increase its support for Kyiv.

“For every kind of attack, we should respond,” Tsahkna said. “Not that we go to Russia and blow something up, but on the sanctions level.”

Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and an expert in combat below the threshold of warfare, said Estonia was partly playing down the Russian threat for strategic reasons. “It’s not beneficial to the Baltic economies if they’re always talking about Russian threats,” she said. “They’re positioning themselves as countries that are able to operate as normal, because that’s how you attract investors and build a viable economy.”

Braw said Russia had shifted the focus of its gray-zone attacks toward countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom, which contribute more to Ukraine’s defense. She also said the Baltic states had hardened themselves against certain kinds of assault, citing a major Russian cyberattack on Estonia in 2007.

“Nothing like that has happened since,” Braw said, “and it’s not for lack of trying on the Russian side.”

Estonia began preparing to defend itself before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. NATO ground troops from alliance members including the United Kingdom have been deployed in the Baltics since 2017 and reinforced since 2022. They now number around 1,500.

More than 200,000 people are in Estonia’s mobilized registry in case of invasion. The physical defenses along NATO’s eastern flank, such as the dragon’s teeth, were erected in the past few years and dubbed the “Baltic Defense Line.”

Estonia also revised its invasion plan after the Ukraine war began. Officials said developments in the war showed that holding territory was much easier than winning it back. Estonia’s doctrine now calls for fighting for every inch of its territory instead of falling back toward Tallinn.

Estonian officials said NATO needed a direct stake near the Russian border even though the allied troops stationed there were not numerous enough to deter a major Russian attack. “They’re integrated and they will be casualties in any hostilities,” Tsahkna said.

Narva, a city of 53,000 on Estonia’s border with Russia, is a particular focus of invasion fears. The overwhelmingly Russian-speaking city sits across a river from Russia, with two medieval castles facing each other from opposite banks. Dragon’s teeth stand behind barbed wire on a small section of the Estonian riverbank, and the sound of drones overhead has become a regular part of life.

Roughly a third of Narva’s residents hold Russian rather than Estonian citizenship. Putin has described the city as historically Russian land. A recent book, “If Russia Wins,” imagines Russia staging a surprise attack on Narva after achieving its goals in Ukraine, forcing NATO leaders to decide whether defending the city is worth risking war with Russia.

The Journal reported that many Narva residents, especially older ones, watch Russian television and repeat claims the newspaper characterized as “Kremlin propaganda” about the war in Ukraine.

Liam Fit, a 55-year-old Russian speaker who moved to Narva as a child, blamed the West for the conflict. “They’re scaring people, saying Russia is going to start a war. It’s stupid,” he said while walking along the Narva River.

The Journal reported that mostly, Estonians are heeding the calls for calm. Artur Säde, 41, grew up in eastern Estonia with Russia across Lake Peipus and said he was accustomed to looking warily eastward. “It’s not so critical,” Säde said. “There could be some explosions, or drone situations on the border. But I don’t think it’s going to get much worse.”

Katri Raik, a former Estonian interior minister and three-time mayor of Narva, said residents feel the war is close but continue with their lives. The Journal reported that calm is also prevailing in Narva. Raik said the sound of drones initially frightened her but that she had become accustomed to it. “A lot of people say, ‘Narva is next’” on Russia’s list of military targets, Raik said. “We feel here that the war is close. But the only thing to do is keep living.”

Kirill Smirnov, an Estonian citizen and native Russian speaker from Narva, said he was far more frightened in 2022, when it appeared possible that Russia would take Ukraine and then come for Estonia. He said he now believed Russia could not start another war. “I don’t feel any threat from that bank of the river,” Smirnov said.

Elvi Orr, 45, recently returned to Estonia after living in the United States for more than a decade. She said Estonians had always been aware of the threat from Russia. “People get flashbacks when they see what’s happening in Ukraine,” Orr said. “We don’t know if we can really count on NATO.”

Estonia has a long history of facing threats from Russia. The Russian empire ruled the country for nearly 200 years. Estonia gained independence in 1918 before the Soviet Union absorbed it during World War II.