Senate Republicans push back on Trump's $5,000 election-linked payments

Tariff revenue projected at $125 billion, far short of $1 trillion cost

WASHINGTON — Senate Republicans are publicly pushing back on President Trump’s proposal to send $5,000 payments to every American adult if the party retains control of Congress after the November midterms, with senators citing the more than $1 trillion price tag, the conditioning of the payments on the election outcome, and the absence of identified funding.

Trump unveiled the idea last week in a speech at the Dallas GOP midterm convention, surprising Republican lawmakers. The White House has labeled the payments a “Trump dividend,” arguing that the country has benefited from tariffs and other administration policies. The U.S. continues to run budget deficits of about 6% of gross domestic product, and there is no money available for such a dividend without borrowing.

“I’m not going to vote to borrow $1.2 trillion and give everybody a check,” Sen. John Kennedy (R., La.) told The Wall Street Journal. “And once the president thinks about that, and they start crafting the legislation and see the impact on the bond market and interest rates and our deficits, I don’t think they’ll end up wanting to do that.”

The fiscal math underscores the challenge. The U.S. was poised to collect about $400 billion in tariffs this fiscal year before the Supreme Court ruled many of Trump’s tariffs to be illegal, according to the Tax Foundation. By next year, under current policies, tariff collection will be about $125 billion — a fraction of the cost of the $5,000 payments proposal.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) called the Trump payouts a “creative idea” in a CNN interview Sunday and said revenue collected from Trump’s sweeping tariffs could fund the payments. “It takes a long time to build consensus around these things. And that’s a big idea that’s going to take a lot of process,” Johnson said at a press conference Tuesday.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) said he saw the idea as a way of highlighting the contrast between Republicans and Democrats but told reporters Monday that he was not committed to the proposal, saying “there will be discussions around that subject” among Senate Republicans.

In congressional testimony Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he believed there are “ways to do it without increasing the debt or deficit.” He said the Treasury Department was examining the idea but did not provide further details. “When the Republicans win in November, if we need to, I look forward to working with Speaker Johnson on it,” Bessent said.

Trump, for his part, has insisted that the payments will occur, citing the narrow passage of last year’s tax-and-spending law as evidence that he can deliver despite legislative obstacles. “When I say something, I mean it!” Trump wrote on social media this week. “The $5,000 Dividend will happen because the People of our Country deserve it.”

Some Republicans signaled openness to the broad idea but said they needed more details on how it would work and where the money would come from. Others said such a payout would balloon deficits and fuel inflation, making it a nonstarter, and argued that tying it to the election result made it suspect.

“I would never support any promise that’s predicated upon a particular political outcome,” said Rep. Kevin Kiley of California, an independent who caucuses with Republicans. “I think that the specific facts here, where you have a particular policy outcome that is predicated on a political outcome explicitly, I think that’s wrong.”

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R., La.), who lost his re-election bid earlier this year, criticized the proposal at a Semafor event, saying Republicans would oppose such payments under a Democratic administration. “If Joe Biden suggested a $5,000 check, without apparent pay-fors, Republicans and conservatives would say, ‘You gotta be kidding me.’”

Congressional Democrats described the proposal as a desperate attempt to bribe Americans to vote for Republicans, who are facing growing unpopularity due to the ongoing war with Iran and rising energy and fuel prices. Trump’s approval rating has reached record lows in recent weeks, the Journal reported, as diesel prices hit record highs and rising bond yields push up borrowing costs for consumers.

“It’s just more ridiculous stuff that he comes up with,” said Rep. Mike Thompson (D., Calif.). “I haven’t heard anything at all from anybody in any part of my district that thinks they’re waiting on a $5,000 check.”

Republicans control the House and Senate now and could pass legislation to send payments even before the election. Trump, however, conditioned the payments on the election result, amid growing fears of a “blue wave” that could cost his party its majorities in both chambers.

Trump floated similar ideas earlier in his second term that never came to fruition, including promises of rebates from tariffs and government spending reductions. Republicans have pointed to Democratic Party-line stimulus measures during the Biden administration as fueling inflation.