Goldwein puts one-year cost at about $1.2 trillion
Data tracked by the Bipartisan Policy Center show that the United States collected about $210 billion in tariff and excise tax revenue in 2026 through September 8. At the reported rate of $21 billion per month, the federal government would need to collect tariffs for nearly five years to cover Donald Trump’s proposed $5,000 payment.
That calculation assumes every dollar of tariff revenue would go toward the payment and excludes tariff payments refunded to retailers in legal challenges. The Bipartisan Policy Center has tracked tariff revenue since Trump began raising rates in 2025.
Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that the proposal would cost about $1.2 trillion in one year. He made the estimate on X in the moments after Trump announced the plan.
Goldwein wrote that “this would cost about $1.2 TRILLION in just one year. That’s more than ALL THREE ROUNDS of COVID relief checks, despite no recessions. The result would be a huge spike in the deficit, and almost certainly in the inflation rate.”
The United States has roughly 240 million adult citizens, suggesting a cost of $1.2 trillion. The federal government spent about $7 trillion in fiscal year 2025, taking on about $2 trillion as debt.
The national debt exceeded $40 trillion for the first time in August. The Guardian reported that the proposal’s potential $1.2 trillion cost would be added to the existing national debt.
Peter Schiff, chief economist for Euro Pacific Asset Management, said the pledge had already begun affecting financial markets. “Even though bond investors know that, even in the unlikely event Republicans retain control of the House, Trump’s promise to borrow over $1 trillion more to buy votes won’t be kept,” Schiff wrote on X. “The promise itself is so reckless that they’re dumping Treasuries, sending yields to new highs …”
Schiff also wrote: “Making his promise even worse, Trump referred to his $5,000 bribes as ‘dividends’, as if his policies had been so successful that the US now has surpluses to share. Instead, his reckless policies have produced massive deficits. Trump needs to send Americans bills, not checks.”
Trump announced the proposal Wednesday during the Republican national midterm convention in Dallas, Texas. He said every US citizen would receive a $5,000 “Trump dividend” if Republicans retained control of Congress in November’s midterm elections.
“If the Republicans win, you win with us and you get $5,000,” Trump said during the convention. “It will be called the Trump dividend.”
Republican US Rep. Chip Roy of Texas questioned how the proposal would be financed. “Well – I would like to know how they would plan to pay for … back of envelope … well over $1tn,” Roy told Politico.
JD Vance appeared to walk back Trump’s pledge by suggesting that the benefit would be means-tested. US Sen. Bernie Moreno, an Ohio Republican, supported the proposal and promised to have legislation ready for passage after the election.
“I will get a bill ready so that we can get the Trump Dividend passed immediately after the November 3rd election,” Moreno wrote on X.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom characterized the pledge as an attempt to buy votes. “After making you sicker and poorer with his war, Donald Trump now wants to buy your vote with $5,000 in taxpayer-funded blood money,” Newsom said. “The most corrupt man ever to occupy the Oval Office.”
The Democratic National Committee pointed to what it described as similar Trump pledges, including $5,000 stimulus checks tied to the work of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency and $2,000 stimulus checks funded by tariff revenue.
“Donald Trump and Republicans are once again offering empty promises to Americans,” said Kendall Witmer, the committee’s rapid response director. “The only people reaping the benefits of Trump’s economy are himself, his family, and his ultra-rich elite donors. Meanwhile, working families get nothing except sky-high receipts at the grocery store and the pump, unaffordable healthcare premiums, and wages that aren’t keeping up with inflation.”