Gulf states split on Iran talks as Saudi Arabia, UAE urge continued pressure

Qatar mediates seven-day pause proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz

Mediators including Qatar are pressing for a fresh round of talks in Oman as soon as next week aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and beginning a process to wind down the U.S.-Iran war, people familiar with the matter said. President Trump said Tuesday he believed the two sides would meet again soon.

But Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are lobbying the Trump administration to keep up the economic pressure on Iran and not agree to concessions that would ease sanctions or the U.S. Navy blockade, the people said. Gulf countries generally agree that Trump should not escalate militarily against Iran.

Saudi Arabia is facing new obstacles in getting its oil to market after Iran’s Houthi militia allies in Yemen began targeting the kingdom’s shipments through the Red Sea, the people said.

The pressure from these Gulf states adds to other impediments to a deal, including Trump’s own inclination to maintain the blockade, concerns in Tehran that talks would be a delaying tactic for the U.S. to get past the midterm elections before resuming hostilities, and an increasingly belligerent tone from Iranian hard-liners as U.S. economic pressure deepens, according to the people.

“There may be no greater force pushing the GCC to conform with U.S. sanctions than the regime reactivating the Houthi threat to their south after months of having blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank. “These are the costs and consequences of Iran overplaying its hand.”

A White House official said the sanctions and blockade had left the U.S. in a strong position with Iran. “While President Trump is open to talking with Iran under the right circumstances, he has no need to negotiate with the Iranians,” the official said.

Arab states led by Saudi Arabia had pushed through the summer for negotiations with Iran and were even willing to consider a deal that acknowledged some Iranian sway over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital sea lane for their oil exports, the people said. But Tehran’s attacks on Saudi ships in the waterway and its encouragement of Houthi efforts to shut off an alternative route through the Red Sea have raised doubts in the Gulf that Iran could be serious about a deal, the people said.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told American officials recently that the U.S. should continue its blockade until Iran signs a new agreement, according to some of the people.

UAE officials, who previously said their state was eager to end the conflict diplomatically, have expressed skepticism about talks with Iran, saying the flare-ups in regional violence and attacks on ships show Tehran is in no hurry to return to diplomacy. Gulf states should not accept permanent Iranian control of the strait, they said.

Other Gulf states, mainly Oman and Qatar, argue that the region has already suffered significantly and say proposals for a phased reopening of Hormuz and a halt to attacks on Gulf states are the only viable way to end the conflict. Qatar has been working around the United Nations General Assembly to restart talks between Iran and the U.S. Iran’s foreign minister landed in Doha on Sunday to discuss new proposals including a seven-day pause in fighting that could pave the way to ending Iran’s attacks on shipping in exchange for the U.S. lifting its blockade, people familiar with the matter said.

That proposal faces a significant obstacle. The U.S. has regularly communicated to Qatar that Trump has no intention of lifting the maritime embargo, the people said. Also, while Arab mediators said Iranian diplomats have presented proposals to end the war and acknowledged the deepening economic crisis in their country, they said they are receiving a different message from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has said it will not entertain new formulas for an agreement and is prepared for a long war.

The Revolutionary Guard, which is tasked with defending the regime and dominates the power structure in Tehran, wants to return to terms closer to the preliminary deal Trump struck with Iran in June. That agreement promised relief from sanctions on oil sales, access to Iran’s frozen assets, and acknowledgment of a role for Tehran in administering the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for opening the waterway.

The U.S. has told mediators it has no interest in returning to that deal and believes economic pressure will eventually force Tehran to sign an agreement with terms more favorable to Washington and Gulf states.