Flavio’s first-place finish exceeded expectations as polls had placed Lula ahead
With roughly 125 million Brazilians casting ballots Sunday, neither President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva nor Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro secured the majority required to claim the presidency outright, sending Brazil’s two dominant political camps to an Oct. 25 runoff. Preliminary results from Brazil’s Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, reported late Sunday with nearly all ballots counted, showed Flavio Bolsonaro with a little more than 47% of the vote to Lula’s 45.1%. No other candidate among the dozen who ran reached 3% of ballots cast, confirming a race that observers and pre-election polls had framed as a contest between the two.
Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, is a senator of the right-wing Liberal Party and the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who served as Brazil’s president from 2019 to 2022. The elder Bolsonaro is now under humanitarian house arrest, serving a 27-year, three-month sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 presidential election to Lula. The younger Bolsonaro is himself under federal police investigation for alleged corruption, money laundering and foreign-exchange violations connected to a biographical film about his father. He has vowed to secure his father’s release if elected, either through amnesty legislation, which would require congressional action, or a presidential pardon.
Lula, 80, of the left-leaning Workers’ Party, is seeking a fourth, nonconsecutive presidential term. Speaking to supporters shortly before 10 p.m. in Sao Paulo, the incumbent acknowledged that he had expected to win in the first round but said the campaign would have another chance in the runoff. “The game is about to begin. We are in extra time. In extra time, we are going to convince the Brazilian people of the importance of continuing our project,” Lula said.
The senator addressed supporters separately in Lago Sul, Brasilia, characterizing the first-round result as a vote of confidence. “I couldn’t be more pleased to see that Brazil wants change,” Flavio Bolsonaro said. “I was happy with the results in every region.”
Flavio Bolsonaro’s first-place finish exceeded expectations. Although several pre-election polls had forecast that a runoff would be required, they placed Lula ahead by only a few percentage points.
The runoff comes amid shifting politics in the Western Hemisphere in recent years and as a second Trump administration seeks to expand its influence. Right-wing politicians allied with U.S. President Donald Trump have recently won elections in Colombia, Honduras and Peru, among others. Trump and the elder Bolsonaro are close allies, and since returning to the White House, the Trump administration has imposed punitive measures against Brazil while accusing Brazilian authorities of political persecution. Despite the relationship with the elder Bolsonaro, Trump has not endorsed Flavio Bolsonaro’s candidacy.
While a dozen candidates ran in Sunday’s first round, the contest was widely viewed as a two-person race. Lula campaigned to continue social-spending programs including investment in education and healthcare, while Flavio Bolsonaro campaigned on change while calling for fiscal restraint.