Picanha and prices loom over Brazil's tight presidential election

Only 10 percent of Brazilians say income has outpaced cost of living

Brazilians prepare to vote Sunday in the first round of a presidential election weighing differences on security, foreign policy, and the environment alongside kitchen-table economic concerns captured in the price of picanha. NPR correspondent Catherine Osborn, reporting from Rio de Janeiro, describes picanha, the top sirloin cap steak, as “a marker of prosperity in this beef-loving country.”

The cut became political shorthand during Lula’s 2022 campaign, when the left-wing president told voters they would once again be able to afford picanha if he returned to office. Brazil’s economy was still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic at the time. Lula is now seeking reelection against Flávio Bolsonaro in what polls suggest is a tight race.

Both candidates are framing the economy in terms of kitchen-table affordability, but they diverge on causes and remedies. Lula points to wage gains that outpaced inflation during his first three years; Flávio Bolsonaro has played up the idea that basic staples have become unaffordable, publishing a video of himself denouncing supermarket prices and name-checking picanha, and broadly argues that cutting taxes and government spending will boost growth.

The strain on households is measurable. By June, Brazilian households were spending 26.6 percent of their income on non-mortgage debt payments, according to the country’s central bank. After Lula took office, a burst of public spending caused economic growth to speed up, though it is now slowing. That indebtedness has climbed alongside a boom in sports gambling, easy access to credit lines, and high interest rates — even as average wages grew more than inflation during the first three years of Lula’s term.

Marcella Pirozzi, 44, co-owner of a Rio de Janeiro barbecue company, said she now focuses her picanha catering work in wealthy parts of the city. In poorer areas, she said, people are “more conservative” about their spending. “We don’t get hired to cater events very often due to meat prices,” Pirozzi told NPR.

At his butcher shop on Rio’s working-class north side, 37-year-old Arthur Guedes said he has scaled back how much picanha he expects to sell. He has shifted emphasis to hamburger patties, a more accessible product.

A recent survey found that only 10 percent of Brazilians feel their income has grown faster than the cost of living in the past year — a gap between the headline economic data and voter sentiment that several analysts say resembles what played out in the United States during the Biden administration.

Some analysts argue a concept first used in the United States — that of a “vibecession,” in which an economy is not technically in recession but feels unaffordable — now applies in Brazil. University of São Paulo economist Laura Carvalho told NPR the term fits.

Carvalho said the gap between the economic data and how it is perceived could stem from Brazilians making mental comparisons with an earlier period when Lula was president, in the 2000s. Brazil’s economy boomed dramatically then, and many families could afford items like refrigerators and air travel for the first time, she said.

Today’s economy is contending with price shocks that did not exist during that earlier Lula presidency, Carvalho said: “the pandemic, and then the war in Ukraine, and now, with the Iran war.” Heavy U.S. tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump have also taken an economic toll on Brazil, she added.

Flávio Bolsonaro has played up the idea that basic staples have become unaffordable. He published a video of himself denouncing prices in a supermarket and made sure to name-check picanha, according to NPR. He has offered limited detail on his own economic proposals, broadly arguing that cutting taxes and government spending will boost growth. One of his top advisors has praised the policies of Argentine President Javier Milei, whose libertarian austerity program has reduced inflation but seen poverty rise in recent months.

Lula, for his part, has downplayed concerns that Brazil’s national debt might be becoming unsustainable. He has announced new measures in recent days meant to address household indebtedness, including a debt restructuring program and a ban on online betting.

Carvalho said the voter backlash against incumbents over cost of living is part of a wider phenomenon. “You have incumbents everywhere that are suffering the effects of the price increases of the different shocks,” she said. “People look at the price increase and they blame whoever is in government.”

Guedes, the butcher shop owner, said that only days before the election he had not yet decided how to vote. “I don’t see clear strategies from the candidates for how to improve the country,” he told NPR.

Pirozzi has made up her mind. She said she is “ready for a change” and will vote for Bolsonaro.