Plot included drone attack, vehicle bomb, and recruited U.K. nationals
The planned attack was part of a multifaceted Iranian plot to target the aircraft and kill personnel at the base, including American pilots, according to U.S. and European officials briefed on the matter. The Wall Street Journal has reported that, before the movement of the aircraft, U.S. officials were aware of an Iran-linked plot to attack the aircraft and personnel at the base; a branch of the IRGC had recruited U.K. nationals to carry out the plot, which involved multiple steps including a diversion in the neighborhood nearby.
In addition to the drone threat, U.S. military officials in Europe were briefed in late September about a possible vehicle-borne improvised explosive device, the Journal has reported. The aircraft were moved abruptly on Sunday, according to officials.
President Trump on Monday said people linked to Iran posed a threat to assets at the base. “We had an idea that there might be a threat, so why would I leave them there?” he told reporters. Vance, speaking to reporters at Joint Base Andrews before departing on a trip to Alaska, expressed concern about Iranian behavior more broadly. “We do feel with some confidence that the Iranians are trying to do what the Iranian state has done for 49 years, which is engage in acts of terrorism against the United States and against a lot of other people as well,” Vance said. “We are being extremely cautious.”
A spokesman for the U.K. government on Monday said its military bases are safe and declined to comment on decisions made by the U.S. The Pentagon declined to comment on the planned attack but confirmed that all American bombers at the base had returned to the U.S.
Trump said previously that the U.K. nationals arrested near the base last week intended to do “big damage” and that they had been under investigation. He said he disagreed with the U.K.’s decision to release them on bail. British police are still probing how and why five masked men were near Fairford air base last week after driving from London in vans containing barrels of fuel. The U.K. government has said there are strong indications the plot is linked to Iran but has not provided further detail. The men were arrested on suspicion of plotting a terrorist act but were then released on bail; they have not been charged with a crime.
A sixth man, a dual U.K.-Iranian citizen, was arrested days later on suspicion of plotting a terrorist act but was also released on bail.
U.K. officials caution that while Iran has publicly threatened British bases and clearly presents a threat, there is no evidence that Tehran could launch such an elaborate operation against Fairford. Iran has targeted other British bases abroad, including Akrotiri in Cyprus and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, and has a record of hiring criminal proxies to carry out attacks in Europe, typically focused on Jewish sites or dissidents of the regime.
Robert Tollast, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, a U.K. military think tank, said launching an explosive drone at a U.K. air base would be technically difficult given counterdrone technology. However, the impact of even a botched attack on B-1 bombers would be humiliating for the U.S. “It’s a case of low probability but high impact if it is successful,” he said.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who previously said the plot against the U.S. base involved the hand of a foreign actor, played down the threat on Monday, telling reporters that it isn’t unusual to see military aircraft rotate around the world. “We have confidence in the security of all our bases,” he added.