Parti Québécois wins Quebec election but falls short of majority

Coalition Avenir Québec collapses to zero seats as Fréchette resigns

The Parti Québécois will form Quebec’s next government after Monday’s provincial election, but the result leaves the party well short of the majority it would need to advance its signature promise of a sovereignty referendum. The PQ added 56 seats to its roster and more than doubled its 2022 vote share, according to The Guardian’s analysis, but it was left five seats short of the seats required to govern alone, making its pledge to hold a referendum after Donald Trump leaves office in 2028 “nearly impossible.”

The party also won with barely 28% of the popular vote, which the polling analyst Philippe Fournier described as the lowest percentage for any government in Canada’s electoral history. The vast majority of Quebecers voted for parties that want nothing to do with another referendum, The Guardian reported — a reflection of the province’s 30-year aversion to a renewed debate about Quebec’s place in Canada, particularly in the wake of Trump’s tariffs and threats against the country.

The result not only puts another referendum in doubt but threatens a raft of other PQ initiatives, including abolishing the monarchy and applying Quebec’s strict language laws to the province’s colleges. The new government will also face stiff opposition to its plans to reduce immigration levels, which has angered farmers and the business community.

The CAQ’s collapse

The election produced the total collapse of the Coalition Avenir Québec, which had governed Quebec since 2018. The CAQ — an alliance of federalists and separatists that the party describes as nationalist — did not win a single seat and harvested just a third of its 2022 vote share, according to The Guardian. Its leader, Christine Fréchette, lost her own riding to the Parti Québécois and on Tuesday afternoon resigned.

In a province whose political discourse has long been organized around the federalist-separatist divide, the election marked a return to a more familiar pattern, with separatists returning to the PQ’s fold while the federalist vote dispersed between the opposition Liberal Party and the upstart Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ). The PCQ won 19 ridings in the hinterland and in the Quebec City area, where leader Éric Duhaime won a seat for the first time. The populist party, founded in 2009, counts a prominent anti-vaccine activist and a radio host known for anti-”woke” commentary among its winning candidates.

The PCQ broke through in part on a promise to build an underground highway linking Quebec City to its suburbs across the St. Lawrence, despite government reports that the project would cost as much as C$9.3 billion and do little to ease traffic.

St-Pierre Plamondon as premier

The Guardian reported that Montreal “went decidedly Liberal red,” with Liberal leader Charles Milliard regaining seats on the island and in the traditionally English-speaking Eastern Townships. The Quebec Liberals, who are unaffiliated with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s federal Liberals, will serve as Quebec’s official opposition. Governing with only a handful of seats in the province’s biggest metropolis will be challenging enough for the PQ; as history has shown, winning a referendum without Montreal is somewhere near impossible.

In his victory speech, St-Pierre Plamondon pledged to be a “good-faith collaborator” with the rest of the country and addressed the crowd in English. The following day, he announced he would prevent the lieutenant governor, who represents the British crown, from swearing in his new government — what The Guardian described as an attempt to court the other side of the sovereignty debate.

The most popular politician in the province remains Prime Minister Mark Carney, The Guardian reported, in large part because of his resistance to Trump. That leaves St-Pierre Plamondon in what the newspaper called “an awkward situation for a separatist”: he cannot afford to be seen as a threat to Canadian unity.

“Seventy percent of Quebecers don’t want a referendum,” said John Parisella, who served as chief of staff to two Quebec premiers and as Quebec’s delegate general in New York and Washington. “And every time they see Trump’s picture on the screen at night, it does nothing to improve a desire for separation. For a lot of Quebecers, the link with Canada is absolutely crucial, even if it isn’t necessarily emotional.”

The Trump tariff backdrop

The election took place amid Donald Trump’s trade war with Canada, marked by his tariffs and threats against the country, according to The Guardian. The newspaper’s analysis suggested the result may have less to do with embracing separatism than with punishing the CAQ after eight years in power, with the federalist vote dispersing to the opposition Liberal Party and the upstart Parti conservateur du Québec.

Within roughly two weeks, Canada will face another potential test of its sovereignty when Alberta holds what The Guardian described as a “referendum on a referendum” on secession. Polling suggests Albertans are as averse to separation as Quebecers have now become, regardless of the party Quebecers chose to govern.