Quebec seat flips from Conservatives, preserving Carney’s majority
The three votes were triggered by the resignations of three MPs and gave Carney’s Liberals a notable pickup with the addition of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, previously held by the Conservatives, to the government’s column. The result preserves Carney’s slim majority in the House of Commons.
Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil, a dairy farmer, took Chicoutimi-Le Fjord with more than half of the overall vote, defeating the Bloc Québécois and the Conservatives into second and third places respectively. The district had been a narrow three-way race at the previous election. In Ontario, Tanveer Shahnawaz won Beaches-East York, and in British Columbia, Braeden Caley won North Vancouver-Capilano.
In remarks to supporters in French reported by CBC, Gobeil said, “this victory means we can maintain Canadian unity all across the country.”
The loss of the Quebec seat is a fresh blow to Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who won a leadership test in January by a landslide but has faced questions about his ability to navigate the current political climate. The seat had been held by Richard Martel, who stepped down last month after Carney appointed him to Canada’s Senate. Senators in Canada are not elected.
The Conservatives have struggled to close the gap with the Liberals since last year’s federal election, with the latest polls suggesting they are trailing by about 10 points. Four members of their ranks have crossed the floor to the governing Liberals since the April 2025 election, and three others have either resigned or announced plans to do so.
Carney’s government approval rose four points in recent weeks, as did his personal popularity, according to figures released on Monday by Canadian pollster Abacus Data. The firm’s founder, David Coletto, credits the boost to US President Donald Trump’s lack of popularity with Canadians, and to the country rallying around Carney’s decision to walk away from trade talks with the White House.
In a Monday note, Coletto wrote that “Carney’s personal rating is stronger there than anywhere else in the country,” referring to Quebec. The province stands to be among those most affected by Trump’s new 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods, which came into effect after trade talks collapsed earlier this month.
Oxford Economics warned in a recent report that Quebec could lose C$2bn ($1.4bn; £1bn) in annual output by 2028.
Carney congratulated the three victorious Liberal candidates in a post on X. Reflecting on the wider issues facing his premiership, he wrote: “Canada is being tested in a changing world, and Canadians are up for it.”
The by-election sweep follows Carney’s late-August decision to walk away from US trade talks and to impose retaliatory tariffs after Trump’s 50% duties on Canadian goods took effect. As MSI previously reported, Carney ended US-Canada trade talks in an August 22 Ottawa speech, pledging diversification, and announced $20bn in retaliation as US tariffs took effect.