Michigan swing voters fear Canada tariffs will raise prices

Eight of 13 feel more economically anxious than before Trump

Two online focus groups observed on Wednesday night included 13 Michigan voters who supported Joe Biden in 2020 and then Donald Trump in 2024, according to NPR. The sessions were conducted by messaging firm Engagious and market research recruiting firm Nelson Recruiting under NPR’s Swing Voter Project, which holds monthly discussions with swing voters in battleground states. Participants took part under the condition that their last names would not be used.

Eleven of the 13 participants said the trade war with Canada, which shares a border with Michigan, would hurt the state. Not a single person identified a positive outcome from the tension with their northern neighbor. A majority said they were most worried higher tariffs could worsen an affordability crisis — a central issue in this year’s midterms. Nine said they were specifically concerned that the tariffs would affect what they personally pay for some products.

“Prices are going to go up,” said P.J., a 45-year-old self-described Democrat. “The more we put tariffs on stuff, the more they put tariffs on stuff. I mean, prices are just ultimately going to go up for all of us.”

Rich Thau, president of Engagious, moderated the discussions. He said Michigan’s border with Canada makes voters there particularly attuned to the financial impact of Trump’s tariff policies. “It’s real for them,” Thau told NPR. “It’s proximate and they’re concerned that this is going to be damaging to them personally and to the state overall.”

Several participants pointed to specific cross-border economic ties they expect to suffer. Tanya, a 61-year-old independent, said she regularly sees trucks crossing the border and noted the newly opened Gordie Howe Bridge. “It’s going to decrease the border crossings because we have two bridges now,” she said. “We just opened the Gordie Howe Bridge. It’s going to affect the amount of traffic and the business that those bridges are going to see in the future.”

Barbara, a 77-year-old independent voter, said she looked at a bottle of shampoo in a store and concluded its price would rise sharply. “I just went into the store and I looked at my shampoo and I said, ‘OK, this is going to go up 50%,’” she said. “I mean, because my shampoo is made in Canada.” Sylvia, a 62-year-old Democrat, said she would put off purchases of some Canadian goods. “I like to buy certain alcohol and other types of products [from Canada],” she said. “And if it’s going to go up, it’s going to cost me more. So I probably wouldn’t be able to pick it up right away or would have to wait a little while and hope that maybe this will slow down and quiet down and they could get a better resolution from all of this.”

Economic anxiety has been a recurring theme in the Swing Voter Project’s monthly focus groups. In Michigan, eight of the 13 said they feel more economically anxious now than before Trump returned to office. Voters “complained bitterly about the high prices of an endless number of goods, groceries, gasoline … go down the list,” Thau said. “So they are not in a happy mood when it comes to the cost of everyday goods. So the tariffs just add more fuel to the fire.”

Samantha, a 31-year-old independent voter, said she found the situation especially frustrating because she had supported Trump on his promises to bring down prices. “I feel like my only reason for voting for him was in the hopes of fixing the economy,” she told Thau. “And right now from where I am — I would consider myself middle class — things are more expensive such as food, gas.”

Several participants also questioned Trump’s recent decision to rename Lake Ontario as “Lake America” in response to Canada’s retaliatory tariffs. “It is a little bit of his ego,” Sylvia said. “But I just don’t understand why he is focusing on that. Like what Samantha had said, he needs to focus on our country and get it back running good and inflation down like he keeps saying, but I haven’t seen it yet.” David, a 67-year-old independent voter who identifies with the MAGA movement, attributed the move to similar motivations. “He’s just trying to get a rise out of the opposition in Canada and … get a reaction,” David said. “And I think that’s the only reason he’s doing it, and his ego, too. ‘OK. I can do it, and what are you going to do about it?’”

While focus groups are not statistically significant like polls, NPR said the sessions provide insight into how a politically consequential slice of the electorate is thinking. Michigan voters this year will weigh in on a closely watched Senate race that the public broadcaster reported could help decide whether Democrats regain control of the chamber.