UK formally attributes Fairford incident to IRGC; further sanctions to follow

UK had earlier cited only ‘strong indications’ of Iran’s role

Burnham told Parliament on Monday that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were “almost certainly” behind the late-September incident near RAF Fairford, in the firmest attribution of responsibility the UK has made so far. “I can confirm our assessment that it is highly likely to have been coordinated in Iran, almost certainly directed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards,” Burnham said in his parliamentary remarks.

The prime minister separately told MPs that the UK would bring further sanctions against Tehran and the IRGC as a result, with additional information to be provided in an update from Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. The announcement came in the same parliamentary session.

The incident at the centre of the assessment occurred shortly after midnight on 27 September, when five men from London drove to Whelford, a village next to RAF Fairford, in three white vans. The five were released on police bail a day later, after no bombs or explosives were found.

A week after the incident, the United States withdrew 12 B-1 bombers stationed at the base. Reports cited US concerns about a possible drone attack on RAF Fairford, which had been used by US aircraft during strikes on Iran during the Middle East war in the spring and summer.

Burnham’s statement on Monday represents a step up from the UK government’s earlier public framing. The prime minister had said in the days after the episode that there were “strong indications” that Iran had played a part, but the new attribution more confidently assigns responsibility to the IRGC.

British authorities have not publicly described what they believe occurred at Fairford. Some outside experts have speculated that the incident was a “feint” intended to demonstrate that Iran could in theory strike a relatively open site, though British sources have repeatedly maintained that Iran lacks the capability to mount a sophisticated drone attack.

The episode has nonetheless appeared to unsettle the United States, where officials are reported to be worried about the security of US bases across Europe. RAF Fairford has hosted US strategic bombers during overseas operations, including the strikes on Iran earlier this year.

Further details of the sanctions are to be provided by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood in a forthcoming update.