Gold and silver fall after U.S. September CPI tops estimates

RBC flags Antofagasta copper gap; Macquarie trims gold, uranium targets

Gold futures settled 1.6% lower at $4,084.80 a troy ounce in New York on Wednesday, with silver dropping 6.1% to $55.55 — its lowest close in almost 11 months — after the U.S. consumer price index for September came in above analyst estimates. The inflation print pushed the dollar higher and increased market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase this month. Continuing attacks in the Persian Gulf added pressure by lifting oil prices, “sustaining the risk that energy-led inflation complicates the Fed’s path,” Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Neo said in a note.

FRED data placed the headline consumer price index at 3.7% year-over-year and the trade-weighted broad dollar index at 121.6 as of mid-October.

In copper, RBC analysts Ben Davis and David Monus said Antofagasta’s 2027 production guidance implies no growth against the miner’s original 2026 outlook. Earlier in the year, Antofagasta cut its 2026 copper production forecast from 650,000–700,000 metric tons to 625,000–655,000. Its 2027 guidance is below that initial range despite expected improvements in ore grades at the Los Pelambres mine and the commissioning of a second concentrator at Centinela, the analysts said. Antofagasta shares fell 6.5% to 3,341 pence.

For Indonesian miner ANTAM, also known as Aneka Tambang, UOB Kay Hian analysts said gold-segment margins should improve in the second half as inventory exposure declines, broader sourcing in Indonesia lifts it, and higher gold prices improve the segment’s margin. Margins had been pressured in the second quarter by around 6 tons of inventory after a gold-price correction, though management has since trimmed inventory targets to 15 days each for finished goods and raw materials. The brokerage raised its 2026 earnings forecast for ANTAM by 80.8% and lifted its target price to 4,100 rupiah from 3,500 rupiah while keeping a buy rating. ANTAM shares were 4.6% lower at 2,910 rupiah.

In uranium, Macquarie analysts said Paladin Energy’s fiscal-2027 output guidance still looks achievable if recovery improvements seen through September continue and ore grades improve. Paladin’s Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia produced 1.0 million pounds of U3O8 in the first quarter, weaker than expected, but the company maintained output guidance of 5.1 million–5.6 million pounds of U3O8 in FY27. Macquarie kept an outperform rating on Paladin but cut its price target 6.1% to A$13.00 a share. Paladin closed at A$7.28 on Wednesday.

A final investment decision on Deep Yellow’s Tumas project now looks less likely in the fourth quarter given the current state of equity markets, Macquarie said. “Even if this were possible, the dilution from these share price levels would be excessive,” the analysts wrote, adding that a delay is justified to preserve long-term value and would likely be taken positively by the market. Macquarie trimmed its price target 2.5% to A$1.95 a share. Deep Yellow closed at A$0.865, its lowest level since April 2025.

Evolution Mining needs to ramp up production to meet annual guidance after missing first-quarter expectations due to power issues at its Mungari and Red Lake gold mines, Macquarie said. First-quarter gold output of 153,600 ounces represented 22% of the midpoint of annual guidance and was 5% below consensus, although copper production beat estimates. “Red Lake grid instability appears to be transitory, while the transmission lines were getting connected to a nearby third party, while at Mungari the power problems appear more structural,” Macquarie said. Evolution is exploring a battery installation at Mungari that could take 12 to 18 months to commission. Macquarie kept a neutral rating on Evolution and lowered its price target 4% to A$13.00 a share. Evolution closed at A$12.55.

Iron ore prices slipped in early Asian trade on Wednesday amid unattractive steel-mill margins and falling steel output, according to a research note from Nanhua Futures. China’s imports of iron ore continue to rise year-on-year, keeping domestic supply ample, the note said. As China’s manufacturing-sector steel demand recovers only slightly, the third quarter may be the weakest season for steel use, with both Chinese and overseas demand concentrated in the later part of the year, Nanhua said. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 0.5% to 671.00 yuan a ton.

Saudi Arabian and U.A.E. chemical producers face a test of their ability to redirect exports as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, S&P Global Ratings said. Company results should show how effectively producers have used alternative routes despite logistical constraints, the ratings firm said. “Solid chemical products are generally easier to store or reroute than liquids, which require specialized storage and transportation infrastructure,” S&P said, noting that the conflict has disrupted regional chemical exports and production, and adding that geographic diversification is an important factor in companies’ credit resilience.

Separately, Steve Neamtz of Yorkville America argued that bitcoin and gold are “two sides of the same coin” for investors hedging against currency debasement. Bitcoin as “digital gold,” he said, “simply doesn’t have the benefit of time in the market to determine how it may behave in the course of financial stress,” while gold has had “thousands of years” to “demonstrate its value as a reserve asset.” Both, he said, will work for debasement hedges. “None of this requires picking a side,” Neamtz added. “Central banks are buying gold on infrastructure that already exists; institutions are buying bitcoin on infrastructure still being built — the same debasement logic, two different stages.” Bitcoin fell 1.9% on Wednesday while gold was off 1.6%.