NOAA forecasts warmer, wetter US winter with reduced northern snowfall

Above-normal snowfall expected in southern Rockies and parts of south-east

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its three-month winter outlook on Thursday, with National Weather Service Director Ken Graham presenting the forecast at a media briefing. The outlook projects generally warmer and wetter conditions across most of the United States, driven by El Niño — the natural but temporary warming of parts of the Pacific that disrupts weather globally in often-predictable regional patterns.

Some or all of 41 of the lower 48 states are forecast to be warmer than normal through the winter. No states, or even portions of states, are forecast to be cooler than average. Florida, Louisiana, southern Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi are expected to be near normal, the outlook said. Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, southern California, Nevada, Wyoming, western Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska face an equal chance of above-normal, below-normal, or near-normal temperatures.

The snowfall outlook diverges from the temperature picture. NOAA does not issue seasonal snowfall predictions, but its meteorologists said much of the northern tier of the country — including the northeast, the Great Lakes, the upper midwest, and the northern Rockies — should expect below-normal snowfall. The southern Rockies, parts of the south-east, and the south-west are more likely to see above-normal snowfall.

“This is going to be a winter that’s really difficult for them to find what they’re looking for,” James Belanger, vice-president of meteorology for the Weather Company, said. And a White Christmas? “Consider a plane ride to the southern Rockies,” Belanger said. Otherwise, “Santa’s gonna find a barren landscape when he returns in late December.”

The private forecast from AccuWeather points in the same direction. The firm expects Salt Lake City to be the only major metropolitan area with above-normal winter snow amounts projected. Chicago, Boston, New York, and Philadelphia are forecast to receive roughly half or less of their typical winter snow. AccuWeather projects Denver to have 10 to 18 days with at least 2 inches of snow, which it describes as more than the historical average of 9 inches — a marked change from last winter.

Graham cautioned that warmer-than-average seasonal conditions do not eliminate the possibility of individual winter storms. “Listen, even in the winter months, it doesn’t mean you’re not going to have snow. It doesn’t mean you might not have a snowstorm,” Graham said. “So it doesn’t erase the risk.”

Polar vortex disruptions, which can release bursts of Arctic air into the United States, should not occur as frequently as in most winters, National Weather Service meteorologist and branch chief Jon Gottschalck said, though “that doesn’t mean it won’t happen at all.” AccuWeather lead long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok said a single storm can still upend seasonal expectations, particularly for east coast cities. “It only takes one storm to flip the script, especially for the east coast cities,” Pastelok said, identifying late January and February as the periods to watch for eastern snowstorms.

NOAA projects that parts of 39 states will see a wetter-than-usual winter, with much of Montana and parts of Oregon, Idaho, Wisconsin, and Michigan trending drier. “We anticipate drought conditions to improve or end for western portions of Oregon and western Washington state, the south-west, the central and southern Rockies, the southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi valley and areas in the east,” Gottschalck said.

California should prepare for numerous high-impact atmospheric rivers, according to Mike Bettes, a meteorologist at the Weather Channel. “We’d anticipate numerous, high-impact atmospheric rivers that could bring extensive flooding and landslides this winter,” Bettes said. Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow bands of water vapor that transport moisture from oceans and release it as heavy precipitation.

Florida and parts of the south-east should also prepare for more tornadoes this winter and into early spring because of El Niño, Gottschalck said.

Forecasters expect the current El Niño to reach record levels this fall or winter. Winter weather expert Judah Cohen, an MIT research scientist, said he was waiting a couple more weeks before issuing his own forecast, characterizing an unprecedented El Niño as “a reason not [to] be more confident, but less confident.” Cohen added: “We have no real historical analogue or precedent. When every meteorologist on the planet is on the same side, I get nervous. We’re not that good.”

Graham, the weather service chief, noted that a strong El Niño does not necessarily mean its impacts are stronger, but does make the weather easier to predict. The forecast comes against a backdrop of a winter season that has warmed about 4°F (2.2°C) over the past 50 years, predominantly from the human-caused climate crisis, according to NOAA.